Turkey's EU membership argument

The Bosporus - seen by some as a divide between Europe and Asia

By David Bamford Former BBC Turkey correspondent

As the people of Turkey gradually come to acknowledge the reality that their country will not be invited to join the European Union any time soon, their Western-oriented politicians are expected to continue putting a brave face on things.

Those who have pinned their colours to integration have nowhere else to go.

On the other hand, the hard-line nationalist and Islamist politicians, who always viewed the EU as an unwelcome influence on the Turkish way of life, can now move towards the 3 November elections reinforced in their convictions.

EU hopes Turkey will continue reforms after November elections

The European Commission has recommended that 10 countries - mainly from eastern Europe but including Cyprus - can join the European Union by 2004.

But the report says Turkey needs to carry out further political reforms before it can start talks on accession.

Reforms

The secular Turkish establishment had been seeking close association with the European family for four decades now, but seem little nearer to achieving their goal.

They hoped to use the issue of divided Cyprus as a bargaining chip in the negotiations, but the draft EU recommendations make clear that Cypriot membership is firmly disengaged from that of Turkey.

Many Turks are suspicious that the principle reason their country has remained excluded from the EU has to do with European fears of and prejudices against Muslims

Cyprus seems likely to be among the next wave of member countries whether or not there is a comprehensive settlement on reunification.

As compensation, the EU is likely to double the funding it sends to Turkey as part of its membership preparation package.

Europe will also increase its scrutiny of Turkey's efforts to carry out political and human rights reforms recently passed by parliament - in the hope that whichever government emerges in November it does not reverse those reforms, or that poor implementation does not make them irrelevant.

Prejudices

Many Turks are suspicious that the principle reason their country has remained excluded from the EU has to do with European fears of and prejudices against Muslims.

The Turkish press frequently lambastes those who it says wish to keep the EU as an exclusively Christian club.

Few EU politicians and bureaucrats are likely to freely admit there may be a grain of truth in this allegation.

Some do express concern - citing economic reasons - about the prospect of millions of relatively poor Turks flooding the EU labour market.

EU: Turkey must shake off its Ottoman past

Some also acknowledge that they perceive the Bosporus waterway as marking not only a geographical divide between Europe and Asia but also a fundamental cultural frontier as well.

Arguments

No matter how "Westernised" the Turkish elite might feel, the argument goes, the Turkish masses are no more "European" than their counterparts in Morocco, Egypt or Pakistan.

They see the failure of post-Ottoman Turkey to shake off its militaristic tendencies and deepen its democratic processes as a characteristic that is common to the Middle East and wider Islamic world.

The Turks put forward the counter-argument that probably the biggest factor hampering Turkish democratisation and financial discipline is the refusal of the EU to fully embrace Turkey within its fold.

Brussels, they say, moved rapidly in the 1970s to incorporate fledgling democracies such as post-Franco Spain, post-Salazar Portugal and neighbouring Greece following the demise of the colonels.

The former Communist countries of eastern Europe now being accepted by the EU are also still on probation as they establish their own democratic and human rights norms.

Yet, of all the current applicants, only Turkey remains totally excluded from consideration.