Analysis: Nato's Macedonia mission

UK forces will lead the Macedonia mission

By BBC News Online's Sheila Barter

Thousands of troops from across Europe are moving into Macedonia as the operation to collect rebel weapons swings into effect.

But questions are already being asked over whether the mission can succeed against the unpromising backdrop of a tight deadline, an embittered population, and an already wavering ceasefire.

Nato force - approximate numbers

UK leading - 1,900

France - 530

Italy - 500

Germany - 500

Greece - 350

Netherlands - 250

Canada - 200

Spain, Turkey, Hungary, Norway, Czech Republic, Belgium under 200

US - providing transport

Commander: UK's Brigadier Barney White-Spunner

An advance party of British, French and Czech troops was first in place, working on logistics, signalling, liaison with Macedonian forces and other groundwork plans.

Their numbers are now being rapidly swelled by another 3,000 troops, as soldiers and equipment move into position from bases across Europe.

Once all the troops are in position, the operation will be declared active, and the clock will start ticking on their 30-day mission.

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Under the plan, Nato will set up weapons collection points - possibly as many as 15 - at sites across rebel-held territory.

Rebel forces will have to hand over all weapons for destruction

Their locations are still being chosen, but they will be sited across the hilly areas in the north where the rebels have their strongholds.

As rebels lay down their arms, Nato troops will move in to collect them and take them out of the country for destruction.

More than half the final force will be British, with the 16th Air Assault Brigade and the 2nd Battalion, the Parachute Regiment, forming the backbone.

Greece, Italy and France will also head battalions, with other Nato troops in their ranks.

Macedonian forces have been involved in clashes since the deal

The UK's Brigadier Barney White-Spunner will head the whole operation on the ground, although ultimate command will rest with Major General Gunnar Lange, a Dane who is Nato's senior military representative in Macedonia.

Nato officials have insisted that, despite fears that the peace deal may be built on shaky foundations, they remain "cautiously optimistic" about the prospects for peace.

When the deal was signed by Macedonia's politicians earlier in August, several conditions were set which had to be fulfilled before Operation Essential Harvest could move from drawing board to reality:

• The fragile ceasefire had to be judged to be holding. Clashes have continued - but Nato General Joseph Ralston, who visited Macedonia on Monday, has judged that the overall situation is stable enough to risk deployment.

• Ethnic Albanian rebels had to agree with Nato representatives on the technical arrangements for disarming. This breakthrough was achieved after talks involving Nato envoy Pieter Feith, when the rebels agreed to surrender 2,000 weapons.

• Macedonian authorities had to agree an amnesty for rebel fighters, and the status of the Nato operation. Both these were accepted by the Macedonian authorities soon after the rebel disarmanent promise.

• Macedonia's parliament had to ratify the peace deal. This will be done in stages as the weapons are collected.

Despite Nato's push to deploy its troops early, and its optimism, many questions remain over the operation.

The bloodshed has only heightened the country's tensions

Many observers expect the rebels to hand over only symbolic, older weapons - and keep their best armaments in case they want them again.

Even if they do hand in significant quantities, analysts say replacement weapons are easy to come by across the border in Albania, and in the rest of the region.

Others question how long the shaky ceasefire can hold. Sporadic clashes have continued since the peace deal was signed.

Among ethnic Albanians, there are fears of reprisals from Macedonian forces once Nato troops have been and gone.

And the fact remains that, despite the peace deal, Macedonia's ethnic tensions have only been heightened by the months of unrest.

Even with the deal in the bag and Nato troops on the ground, Macedonia's path back to peace may not be a smooth one - and Nato's Operation Essential Harvest may yet turn into a Mission Impossible.

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