Analysis: Macedonian truce prospects

It is the first time a deal has been signed by both sides

By south east Europe analyst Gabriel Partos

For the first time since fighting erupted in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia at the end of February, a ceasefire deal that applied to the whole country was signed at the beginning of July both by the Macedonian authorities and by the ethnic Albanian guerrillas, known as the National Liberation Army, or NLA.

Previously, each side had declared a number of unilateral ceasefires - and then proceeded to violate them whenever it seemed possible that a military advantage could be gained.

Of course it is not the end of the crisis, but it will create peaceful conditions for the political part

National Security Adviser Nikola Dimitrov

The one occasion when third-party mediation brought about a genuine end to fighting came just under two weeks ago when the European Union helped secure the withdrawal of ethnic Albanian fighters from the town of Aracinovo - near Skopje.

That was, of course, only a local and not a nationwide deal. In any case, the guerrillas were allowed to regroup with their weapons at a location further from the Macedonian capital.

More significant

The deal announced this time has potentially much more important implications.

Under the agreement - signed by Macedonia's chief of staff General Pande Petrovski and Police General Risto Galevski for the Skopje authorities, and by the ethnic Albanian fighters' political representative, Ali Ahmeti, on behalf of the NLA - all fighting should cease from midnight local time (2200 GMT) on Thursday.

There are believed to have been no direct negotiations between the two sides as the Macedonian authorities are not prepared to talk to those they describe as "terrorists".

The deal was brokered by Nato mediators and it was then signed separately by the two adversaries.

Mr Trajkovski originally proposed a more far-reaching agreement

The Macedonian president's National Security Adviser Nikola Dimitrov has made it clear that his side regards the ceasefire as a crucial part of a broader process.

"It is a major step forward. Of course it is not the end of the crisis, but it will create peaceful conditions for the political part, for the political dialogue, and it is one of the preconditions for the disarmament process to be realised. We think and we hope that this will bring peace to the Macedonian citizens," he said.

Third party role

Nato and the European Union welcomed the news from Skopje.

The very fact that a third party - Nato - has helped mediate the deal gives it greater credibility.

The more so since Nato has already agreed to help oversee the disarmament of the NLA - which would be part of a more far-reaching agreement that was originally put forward by the Macedonian President, Boris Trajkovski.

That proposal includes a partial amnesty for the ethnic Albanian fighters and a political settlement to meet the Albanian community's demands for more extensive collective rights.

Although there are no details of the agreement as yet, it is generally assumed that the truce is part of the broader deal that has been under discussion.

There is no question of Nato forcibly taking arms away from Albanians

Nato spokesman Yves Brodeur

That would explain why Nato Secretary General George Robertson has said the deployment of a planned 3,000-strong Nato contingent, entrusted with the task of overseeing the disarmament of the NLA, will only take place once there is a "durable ceasefire".

And a Nato spokesman in Brussels, Yves Brodeur, has outlined once again the basis on which Nato forces will carry out their disarmament of ethnic Albanian guerrillas.

"All along, since the beginning, it was clearly established by Nato and clearly understood by everyone that this has got to be done on a voluntary basis, so there is no question of Nato forcibly taking arms away from Albanians," he said. "They will have to agree and surrender their weapons voluntarily."

The Nato contingent will be ready to move into Macedonia a week after a political decision is reached.

Will it hold?

Even if the ceasefire does go into force on, it is only the starting point along a path leading towards resolving not just the current conflict but also the history of inter-ethnic hostility between majority Macedonians and the ethnic Albanians.

To begin with, it is not clear if the NLA is a united force under a single command or whether it includes largely autonomous local commanders who may not go along with the ceasefire.

It is not clear whether all rebel commanders will observe the truce

On the other side of the ethnic divide, several senior Macedonian officials and security forces officers are deeply suspicious about a ceasefire that could lead to the granting of major concessions for the ethnic Albanians.

Those major concessions will include:

• Rewriting parts of the constitution so that Albanians feel they are treated as equal citizens.

• More extensive opportunities for education provisions in Albanian.

• The use of the Albanian language in public life.

There is a long list of ethnic Albanian demands - and an equally long list of Macedonian fears as to whether those demands, once granted, might lead to the break-up of Macedonia.

That is why the negotiations, which may now get under way in earnest, are likely to be long and difficult.