Yugoslavia seeks new government

President Kostunica is trying to rebuild a partnership

By South East Europe analyst Gabriel Partos

The Yugoslav President, Vojislav Kostunica, has begun talks with his Serbian political allies in a bid to form a new federal Yugoslav government.

The previous government collapsed on Friday when Prime Minister Zoran Zizic resigned in protest against the Serbian authorities' decision to extradite the former Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milosevic, to the international war crimes tribunal in The Hague.

Former Prime Minister Zizic now needs to be replaced

But how realistic are the prospects for overcoming the government crisis?

By tradition, Serbia and its small partner-republic, Montenegro, share the top jobs in the Yugoslav federation.

So when Vojislav Kostunica, a traditional Serb nationalist, defeated the long-established Serbian strongman, Slobodan Milosevic, in September's Yugoslav presidential elections, he needed to look for a Montenegrin Prime Minister and a Montenegrin party to join in government his own 18-party Serb umbrella group, known as the DOS.

The choice was simple. Montenegro's independence-seeking governing coalition, led by President Milo Djukanovic, had been boycotting federal institutions for several years, and did not stand in the elections.

Mr Djindjic has been playing down the gravity of the government crisis

That left only Mr Milosevic's long-standing Montenegrin allies, the Socialist People's Party, the SNP, as a likely partner. The SNP promptly ditched Mr Milosevic, and one of its prominent figures, Zoran Zizic, was appointed prime minister.

This somewhat unlikely coalition worked reasonably well until the issue of Mr Milosevic's extradition rose to the top of the agenda.

The SNP is opposed to the extradition of Yugoslav citizens, and it refused to go along with federal legislation that would have allowed Mr Milosevic's surrender.

Resignation

When the Serb Prime Minister, Zoran Djindjic, decide to ignore the federal Constitutional Court's rulling to delay Mr Milosevic's extradition by handing him over to the Tribunal on Thursday, Mr Zizic promptly resigned.

Now Mr Kostunica has begun consultations with Serbs ministers in Mr Zizic's outgoing government in a bid to ensure that a new govenment can be formed.

The problem remains that Montenegro's pro-independence parties - which finally formed a minority government on Monday, more than two months after the Montenegrin elections - are not represented in the federal parliament.

They are set to continue their boycott in the run-up to a referendum on independence that is due by early January.

Possible reshuffle

Indeed, if the paralysis within the federal administration continues, that could accelerate Montenegro's drive towards independence.

That might be the case, notwithstanding the fact that there is at present only a relatively small majority in favour of Montenegro's independence. Meanwhile, Mr Kostunica is continuing his search for a new federal government.

The SNP remains the most likely choice as a coalition partner for the DOS. That would mean a straightforward government reshuffle.

Government crisis

Alternatively, the DOS might try to go for a minority government that would include a small Montenegrin party, the People's Party, and which would still require SNP support in the federal parliament.

If these options do not work out, there would have to be fresh elections. But there is no time limit on how long Mr Zizic's outgoing government - now a caretaker administration - can stay in office.

Partly because of the lack of an early deadline, and partly because key decisions are made at the republican levels - in Serbia and in Montenegro - and not within the Yugoslav administration, Mr Djindjic has been playing down the gravity of the government crisis.

In the meantime, he has also been quoted as saying that he wants the federal presidency to enjoy strong powers. But given the fact that Mr Djindjic simply by-passed President Kostunica in arranging Mr Milosevic's extradition, it is not clear whether Mr Kostunica would accept these reassurances.