Analysis: Can Macedonia avoid war?

Macedonia appears to be heading towards civil war

Thousands of people have taken to the streets of Macedonia to demonstrate their anger over the government's handling of the conflict with ethnic Albanian rebels. Jonathan Eyal, Director of Studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London, assesses whether the country's faltering peace process stands any chance of success

The recent collapse of the peace talks between the Macedonian Government and representatives of its Albanian minority was inevitable - for what the ethnic Albanians want the Macedonian Government is unwilling to give, and what the Macedonians are prepared to concede the Albanians no longer regard as interesting.

Constitutional arrangements solve nothing in the Balkans

Earlier in this conflict, Western intelligence assessments drew a series of red lines - critical indicators of developments in the crisis which, if crossed, would indicate that Macedonia was about to descend into civil war.

• The first was the extent of the Albanian guerrillas' activities. If these remained isolated to the border between Macedonia and Kosovo then the situation was containable.
• The second was the survivability of the Macedonian Government.
• And, finally, there was the question of the cohesion of the Macedonian armed forces. If they remained united, and particularly if there were no major tensions between the paramilitary police and the country's army,  then it was still possible to avoid a civil war.

Sadly, two of the West's red lines have already been crossed.

Albanian extremists are now operating within a few miles of the capital of Skopje, and the Macedonian armed forces are in disarray.

Unable to meet the challenge, Macedonian soldiers are now shelling entire villages, thereby creating a cycle of violence which feeds into more terrorism - precisely what the guerrillas wanted all along.

The dire outcome which everyone hoped would be averted is now approaching.

Western compromise

Western governments, desperate to avoid another Balkan conflagration, came up with a compromise solution: in return for giving up violence and disarming their guerrillas, the Albanians would get better constitutional rights inside Macedonia - a simple approach, which is irrelevant for both sides on the ground.

First, the Albanians are not interested in just improved minority rights. They are demanding the transformation of the country into a bi-national state - precisely what no Macedonian is prepared to countenance.

Ethnic Albanian rebels have called for Nato intervention

The Albanians may offer guarantees that the country would be kept united. But, as anyone who lives in the Balkans knows only too well, multi-national arrangements are usually only an intermediate stage towards territorial separation.

Furthermore, the Macedonians do not believe that Western guarantees for any deal are worth the paper they are written on.

The government points out with some justification that Nato also made promises to protect ethnic Serbs in Kosovo and disarm the various Albanian militias there.

Two years after the Kosovo war neither pledge has been fully respected.

Finally, both sides to the Macedonian conflict know that constitutional arrangements solve nothing in the Balkans.

Yugoslavia had many such documents which did not prevent the country's violent collapse; Bosnia has a constitution which proclaims territorial unity, but which has done nothing to erase the territorial divisions carved up in blood during the last decade.

Intervention

Although neither the Macedonians nor the Albanians can say so publicly, both sides suspect that their dispute will ultimately be resolved in the time-honoured Balkan way - violence, followed by a Western military intervention.

PM Georgievski favours crushing the rebels

And the victor will be the side which would be able to attract this Western military intervention on its own terms.

Seen from this perspective, therefore, the peace talks between the two protagonists were pure posturing, and the conflict will register a decisive change only when Nato has its final say.

The problem is that Nato and the European Union remain deeply divided over what they should be doing.

Euro-dilemmas

The Europeans have always claimed that their own military structure is being created to deal with small crises in which the Americans do not wish to be involved. Macedonia is precisely such a case.

The Europeans have additionally claimed that their structure can embrace countries both inside and outside the European Union. A military operation in Macedonia can, therefore, take in the armed forces of Turkey, Bulgaria or Romania - all having a major stake in Balkans security.

Mr Solana has been spearheading Western peacemaking efforts

And, finally, the Americans are only too happy to cover the Europeans' logistical shortfalls, provided they do not expect too many US soldiers to be present. So, why are the Europeans still hesitating?

Essentially, because they are aware that a military operation is precisely what the Albanian guerrillas in Macedonia want.

Once a Western force is on the ground, a de facto division, of the kind operating in Bosnia, would become a reality - precipitating the death of unitary Macedonia which everyone wishes to avoid.

Yet despite all these arguments, the time for a decision is fast approaching.