Analysis: Nato enlargement prospects

Bush meet other leaders at the Nato summit in Brussels

By Stephen Mulvey and Oana Lungescu

The Nato alliance took in three new members in 1999 - the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary - and is now set to expand again at a summit in Prague in November 2002.

The zero option is off the table

Nato Secretary-General, George Robertson

Until this week's Nato summit in Brussels, the "zero option" of issuing no new invitations to join had not been formally dismissed.

But after the summit closed, Secretary-General George Robertson said it was now "off the table".

However, he added: "We did not discuss the question of who might be invited to join Nato in the future."

Nato applicants

Albania

Bulgaria

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Macedonia

Romania

Slovenia

Slovakia

There are nine official candidates - Albania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.

Croatia is also seen as a potential member, but is not in the running for an invitation next year.

States as far afield as Azerbaijan and Georgia have expressed their desire for Nato membership, but have no chance of success in the short term. Ukraine has said it seeks as close a relationship as possible with the alliance, but not membership.

The Slo-Slo option

Slovenia looks likely to be included

Slovenia and Slovakia - which are both small, relatively well off and would ensure the territorial continuity of the alliance - are generally seen as the best-placed contenders for the next wave of enlargement.

Czech President Vaclav Havel confirmed after the Brussels summit that there was a "general consensus" to invite Slovakia and Slovenia to join.

Slovakian politicians exulted, and have already begun referring to the Prague summit, more than a year away, as a "historic occasion".

This option, however, is too slow and too minimal for some.

Romania and Bulgaria

Romania and Bulgaria, which both played an important role supporting Nato during the bombing of Yugoslavia, are also in the running.

France in particular supports Romania, but its fragile economy may deter most other Nato members from doing the same.

Baltic states

The main question appears to be - will Nato invite any of the Baltic states to join?

Ukraine is not seeking membership of Nato

Russia has made its opposition to such a move abundantly clear. It has described any further Nato enlargement as "a grave mistake" - but what concerns Moscow most of all is the possibility of Nato expansion into the former USSR.

Nato officials also say that they "certainly don't accept that there is a red line concerning enlargement towards the Baltics".

The American position will, as ever, prove crucial. President Bush says history and geography should be no bar to membership, and Lithuanian emigres in the US who supported George W Bush in the presidential campaign are now expecting a reward.

Those countries which join Nato must be contributors of security as well as consumers of security

Nato Secretary-General, Lord Robertson

Lithuania - which has the smallest Russian community of all the Baltic states and enjoys better relations with Moscow than its neighbours - has the support of Poland and Denmark.

Germany is believed to oppose it in order not to antagonise Russia and also for financial considerations.

After the Brussels summit, President Havel said that the "opinion to propose the adhesion of the three Baltic states" was popular among Nato members.

Putin does not want former Soviet states to join Nato

The Big Bang

One scenario under consideration is to invite a few countries next year in Prague, and give the others a clearer timetable provided they fulfil a set of conditions.

Another, known as the Big Bang, is to issue invitations to all candidates while setting out strict membership criteria. This would have the advantage of reassuring candidates of their eventual membership while ensuring that they are fully prepared before joining.

"It would be a 'big-bang' with individual tracks to membership," said Brigadier Michael Clemmesen, Danish commandant of the Baltic Defence College based in Tartu, Estonia.

Preparations

Nato is now starting to take a hard look at how well each candidate country has done in its military, security and economic preparations.

"Those countries which join Nato must be contributors of security as well as consumers of security," Lord Robertson has said.

BBC Defence correspondent Jonathan Marcus says Nato wants to avoid the sense of last-minute crisis that attended its Madrid summit, when a compromise on the first set of invitations to new members was reached only after furious back-room dealing.