The Irish conundrum

Only an estimated 30% cast their ballots

By Europe correspondent Angus Roxburgh

The apparent rejection of the Nice Treaty by Irish voters will have serious repercussions across Europe.

The treaty cannot go into force until it has been ratified by all EU member states, and the enlargement of the union to take in up to 12 candidate members cannot go ahead without the treaty.

Whatever the reasons, the EU now has a problem. Renegotiating the entire treaty seems out of the question

The Treaty of Nice, negotiated last December, introduced reforms to the EU's decision-making process without which, it was claimed, the union would grind to a halt when it enlarged to include a dozen new members.

It set out new voting rights for existing and future member states and restricted the number of areas in which countries would be able to veto EU decisions.

Possible opt-outs

Just why the Irish appear to have rejected it is not clear, though some observers point out that after the bad publicity surrounding the Nice summit, with its all-night wrangling and dubious compromises, voters in several other countries might also have rejected it if they had been given the chance.

Whatever the reasons, the EU now has a problem. Renegotiating the entire treaty seems out of the question.

One other option - which is what happened after the Danes rejected the Maastricht treaty in 1992 - is to grant Ireland an opt-out on certain clauses, perhaps those referring to the EU's common defence policy, which some Irish may feel jeopardises their neutrality.

For the moment though, Irish diplomats say they had no Plan B for the event of a No vote.

It could be a lengthy process. But Guenter Verheugen, the EU's Enlargement Commissioner, says negotiations with applicant countries will have to proceed as normal in the meantime.

Those countries will be dismayed though, knowing that their efforts to join the European Union will all be in vain unless this unexpected problem is resolved.