Analysis: Macedonia's war dilemma

Discussing war may be a way of testing public opinion

By south-east Europe analyst
Gabriel Partos

It was almost exactly a month ago that the idea of declaring a state of war was first mooted by senior Macedonian officials.

But the issue was not taken to parliament for debate after Macedonia's key foreign partners advised against it.

There is no other way to deal with the military threat, but a strong military and efficient response from our security services

Government spokesman Antonio Milososki

Instead, they urged Prime Minister Ljupco Georgievski to broaden his coalition - and a national unity government emerged in the middle of May.

But the recently-formed grand coalition - which brings together the political left and right as well as Macedonians and ethnic Albanians - has so far failed to produce a blueprint for ending the conflict.

Late last month, a secretly-negotiated agreement between ethnic Albanian politicians and guerrillas, aimed at stopping the fighting, was denounced by the Macedonian side which called on the Albanian parties in the government to disown the deal.

Five army soldiers were killed in clashes on Tuesday

With further clashes on Tuesday claiming the lives of five soldiers in the Macedonian army, Mr Georgievski has now once again started to explore the possibility of imposing a state of war.

The government spokesman, Antonio Milososki, insisted there was no alternative to a tough response.

"The Republic of Macedonia must, without delay, declare a state of war, to enact nationwide mobilisation, because the situation demands it," he said.

"There is no other way to deal with the military threat, but a strong military and efficient response from our security services."

Practicalities

However, declaring a state of emergency would not be easy.

For one thing, it would require a two-thirds majority vote in the 120-seat parliament which in the current situation would be very difficult to secure.

A state of emergency would cut lines of communications with ethnic Albanians

That is because it would be resisted, tooth-and-nail, by the ethnic Albanian parties.

Moreover it is also being opposed, at least for now, by the Social Democratic Alliance which joined the grand coalition last month.

The party's leadership does not want to see too much power concentrated in the hands of its political rivals - Prime Minister Georgievski and President Boris Trajkovski.

However, it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the Social Democrats might change tack if there was a groundswell of support for a state of war among the majority Macedonian community.

And parliament could, in theory, be circumvented, with President Trajkovski declaring a state of war, if it were argued that parliament was not in a position to meet.

The real problem with a state of emergency is that it would almost certainly cut off the Macedonian leaders' lines of communications with the ethnic Albanian politicians, polarise Macedonia's two main ethnic communities and anger Macedonia's foreign supporters.

It might do all of this without in any way providing a guarantee of success in the struggle against the guerrillas.

It is true that some of the measures that might be enacted under a state of war - such as a general mobilisation, the closure of Macedonia's borders and the imposition of censorship - could help concentrate state resources against the rebels.

Political motives

But given the limitations on Macedonia's military and financial resources and the guerrillas' experience gained in the Kosovo conflict, a decisive victory against them seems at this stage an elusive goal.

Declaring a state of war may not be a very realistic objective at the moment, but discussing the option can serve other political purposes.

It may be a way of testing public opinion among the majority of Macedonians.

It can be used as a means of demonstrating that Mr Georgievski's party is more determined to deal with the crisis than its new partners within the coalition.

And with the approach of fresh elections - which Mr Georgievski has suggested should be held as early as September - this in itself might be an important consideration.