Macedonia's coalition prospects

Fighting continues despite the political breakthrough

By South-east Europe analyst Gabriel Partos

Macedonia's new coalition is the product of twin-track negotiations conducted in parallel with an armed offensive against ethnic Albanian rebels.

The coaliton, including those representing the ethnic Albanian community embraces all the country's major parties.

On the one hand, there have been talks between senior representatives of the majority Macedonian and the minority ethnic Albanian communities to deal with the grievances of the Albanians.

On the other, discussions have been held to broaden the governing coalition and bring in the main opposition parties, from both sides of the ethnic divide.

It is this second strand of negotiations which has now borne fruit.

Heavy price

Under the deal, the current centre-right government of Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski's Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party of National Unity, and the Democratic Party of Albanians has been turned into a grand coalition which will have the backing of nearly four-fifths of the 120-member parliament.

Lord Robertson and Mr Solana were involved in the coalition talks

The parties that have now joined this grand coalition are the ex-communist Social Democratic Alliance and the ethnic Albanians' Party of Democratic Prosperity -which is still discussing the deal and wants a ceasefire to go into force first. These two parties were the main partners in the previous governing coalition that was defeated in 1998.

Part of the price the opposition parties have extracted was a promise of early elections to be held by the end of January next year, almost a year ahead of schedule.

In addition, several key ministries - including defence, foreign affairs and justice - have gone to the parties now joining the administration.

Prime Minister Georgievski and his allies have had to pay a heavy price for enticing the opposition into government at a time when politicians are not queuing up to be lumbered with responsibility.

Guerrilla demand

But having a broad-based government is crucial when the international community is urging the leaders of mainstream parties to put aside their divisions in the struggle for a peaceful resolution of the crisis.

Besides, including the opposition in the administration will make it easier for Mr Georgievski to make concessions to the ethnic Albanians that might otherwise be difficult to sell to the majority Macedonians.

Similarly, his ethnic-Albanian partners in government will find it less difficult to agree to a deal that may not provide a remedy to all their grievances now that the other main Albanian party has switched from opposition to government.

Of course, having a grand coalition is no guarantee that all the governing parties will agree to a settlement.

Indeed, ethnic Albanian guerrilla commanders have warned that there can be no end to the fighting unless the government holds talks with them.