Reformer could bounce back

Trying times for the former Ukrainian prime minister

By Jacky Rowland in Kiev and Nadira Artyk in London

The fall of the Ukrainian Government headed by Viktor Yushchenko is likely to have far-reaching economic and political consequences.

The cabinet - widely considered the most successful in the country's post-Soviet history - is credited with reviving economic reforms, paying a large portion of overdue wages and pensions, and achieving the first signs of economic growth in recent history.

Yushchenko supporters outside parliament

Its loss is a clear setback for Ukraine's efforts to end a decade of drift and economic stagnation.

Western analysts have warned that the economic reform process could now come to a standstill, dealing a blow to hopes of new loans from the IMF and badly needed foreign investment.

The government's downfall came at the hands of an alliance of communists - the largest party in the parliament - and powerful business interests.

Parts of the political and financial establishment who were happy with the status quo were rattled by a mixture of reforms and a drive against corruption.

Moscow's orbit

Western governments were happy to admit that they regarded the reformist prime minister as a guarantee against Ukraine sliding back into Moscow's orbit, as neighbouring Belarus has done.

Kuchma saw Yuschenko as a rival

However, the collapse of such a pro-western government is a sign that Ukraine may be drifting back towards Russia's historic sphere of influence.

The Ukrainian President, Leonid Kuchma, has already received strong support from President Putin and Russia may be able to offer cheap energy to bolster the economy.

The president is widely accused of involvement in the murder last year of the journalist, Georgiy Gongadze.

He is also embroiled in a wider political scandal, following the release of secret recordings of alleged conversations with his aides, which appear to implicate the president in various murky dealings.

Reincarnation

Mr Yushchenko has so far kept out of the controversy surrounding the president.

Similarly, Mr Kuchma did not get directly involved in the censure motion in parliament, although he may be glad to see the back of the prime minister.

The censure vote does not necessarily spell an end to Mr Yushchenko's political career.

Many observers predict he may undergo a political reincarnation to become a figurehead for the opposition campaign against President Kuchma.

It is unclear who will take on the role of prime minister now.

Members of parliament have spoken in favour of a neutral politician. But most serious candidates would probably prefer to wait for a general election, in order to win power with a credible mandate.