Analysis: Ukraine's political crisis

Yushchenko surrounded by public letters of support

By Ukraine analyst Stephen Dalziel

Should Thursday's no-confidence vote in the Ukrainian Government be carried, the removal of the government - and especially the prime minister - could leave Leonid Kuchma exposed to greater criticism, both at home and abroad.

There is opposition to Mr Kuchma from across the political spectrum.

Mr Gongadze was an outspoken critic of the president

Ever since his voice was heard on tape recordings - later smuggled out of the country - telling the former minister of the interior to "get rid of" journalist Georgiy Gongadze, there have been demonstrations throughout Ukraine calling for him to resign.

In November, a headless corpse found in woods 70km from the capital, Kiev, was thought to be that of Mr Gongadze, but DNA tests have since put this in doubt.

Mr Yushchenko provides a very convenient shield for Mr Kuchma.

His government's claims to be carrying out a policy of economic reform divert some of the blame for poor social and economic conditions which should rightfully land on the shoulders of Mr Kuchma.

President Kuchma could be left exposed if the government falls

Furthermore, Ukraine is desperate for economic aid from the West and many Western governments have serious doubts about Mr Kuchma's democratic credentials. Ukraine was recently excluded from the Council of Europe.

But Ukraine's one saving grace for the West appears to be Mr Yushchenko.

His youthful and energetic appearance, and reformist ideals, are seen by many Western leaders as Ukraine's one hope for genuine change.

Opposition in disarray

The vote in favour of holding a no-confidence motion was largely sponsored by communists harking back to what now seem like the good old days of the Soviet Union.

But others who want to see the government toppled consider it a step towards the removal of Mr Kuchma - the major obstacle to democratic reform.

Even though they may want this government out of the way, they might still be in favour of Mr Yushchenko taking over as president.

The disunity among the opposition - some want the removal of the government, some the removal of Mr Kuchma, some both - is the biggest problem in Ukrainian politics at present.

There is still no goal, and no leader, who seems capable of bringing together the various factions in a positive sense. Such division helps only Mr Kuchma.