Analysis: Who's in charge in Belgrade?

The two leaders have very different approaches

By South-east Europe analyst Gabriel Partos

Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica has criticised the lack of co-ordination between the police and the army during the arrest of former leader Slobodan Milosevic.

Mr Kostunica's remarks - seen as an implicit criticism of Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic - have once again fuelled speculation about a growing rift between the two politicians

Mr Kostunica was abroad when the operation to arrest Milosevic began

The two men are long-standing rivals whose alliance was instrumental in ousting Mr Milosevic last year.

One reason why Mr Milosevic's arrest turned into a prolonged siege was that when the police called on the army officer whose unit was guarding Mr Milosevic's residence to remove the soldiers, the officer gave the keys to a group of Mr Milosevic's ultra-loyalist private bodyguards.

At least, that was the version put out by Mr Djindjic's allies in the Serbian government who control the police. Meanwhile, the army's chief of staff, General Nebojsa Pavkovic, denied the military had in any way tried to obstruct Mr Milosevic's arrest.

Lack of communication

General Pavkovic - who was appointed to his post by Mr Milosevic - is now a Kostunica loyalist. And Mr Kostunica, who as Yugoslav president is commander-in-chief of the army, was kept in the dark about the plans to arrest Mr Milosevic - an operation that got underway as he was heading back to Belgrade from a visit to Geneva.

Kostunica: How long will his popularity last?

The day after the arrest, President Kostunica expressed his bitterness about being kept in the dark, in his customary measured tone:

"There was a substantial lack of co-ordination, lack of information, a certain degree of confusion and many things did not function properly when it came to the relations between the Yugoslav army and the police," he said. "But there were absolutely no obstructions."

The two leaders have been at odds over a number of issues

Prime Minister Djindjic probably wanted to present Mr Kostunica with a fait accompli because the Yugoslav President believes in a cautious, gradual approach, and he may have opposed Mr Milosevic's arrest which was apparently timed to coincide with a deadline set by the United States.

By contrast, Mr Djindjic has been eager to adopt a speedy, almost revolutionary approach to change Serbian politics at a stroke and to get the best possible benefits for his country from the rest of the world.

Conflicting styles

The two leaders have been at odds over a number of issues.

Along with other officials from the Milosevic era, Mr Kostunica has kept on General Pavkovic at the head of the army. This was to reward him for keeping the army out of attempts by Mr Milosevic to deny Mr Kostunica victory in September's presidential elections.

Djindjic's "can-do" approach could win him support

And in January Mr Djindjic expressed his surprise - and implicit criticism - after Mr Kostunica had met Mr Milosevic, a move the president justified on the grounds that in a democracy it was perfectly normal for a head of state to meet the leader of the main opposition party.

Mr Kostunica's conservative, softly-softly approach to change may have been rewarded on 1 April when he was among those who managed to persuade Mr Milosevic to surrender without a fight. Coupled with Mr Kostunica's firm commitment to the cause of Serbian nationalism, this style of leadership has made him immensely popular among Serbs.

Mr Kostunica may soon be out of a job if the federation ceases to exist

But as the Milosevic legacy becomes increasingly discredited through his arrest and expected trial, the appeal of Mr Kostunica's conservative nationalism may begin to fade.

Meanwhile, Mr Djindjic - consistent only in his pragmatism - has been pressing for a rapid transformation of Serbia since Mr Milosevic was ousted.

Because of his frequent changes of policy he has not been particularly well-liked. But he is now projecting himself with considerable success as an energetic, result-oriented, "can-do" politician, whose good relations with the West are likely to pay dividends in terms of foreign aid.

His apparent determination to meet the US deadline over Mr Milosevic's arrest - something he has not actually acknowledged - also shows him as a politician who is prepared to take some calculated risks.

Future tensions

The coming months may see an intensification of the struggle for power and influence between Mr Kostunica and Mr Djindjic.

The Serbian Prime Minister has more extensive formal powers but, for now, he lacks Mr Kostunica's popularity. On the other hand, if Montenegro decides to vote for independence from Yugoslavia - Podgorica has tentatively scheduled a referendum before the end of June - Mr Kostunica may soon be out of a job if the federation ceases to exist.

In any case, Montenegro has already become independent in all but name - making Mr Kostunica, in practice, not so much the president of Yugoslavia, as the head of an alternative administration to Mr Djindjic's government in Serbia.

How long the two rivals will continue as part of a broad-based alliance is now one of the key issues that will determine the future of Serbia.