Stakes high in fighter contest

The Lockheed X-35A takes off on its maiden flight

The first test flight of a new fighter aircraft in California this week marked the start of the contest to land one of the biggest defence contracts in history.

The Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) is expected to generate sales of more than £200bn over the next 20 years.

If you get cost creep then you get Congress stepping in like the wrath of God

Nick Cook, Jane's Defence

For the two rival bidders, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the stakes could not be higher.

But UK companies have also invested heavily in the JSF project - and 30,000 British jobs are riding on its success.

Massive orders

JSF will dwarf previous defence projects, including the £40bn Eurofighter, which Britain also has a share in.

Between three and five thousand aircraft are likely to be built over the next 20 years.

The US Air Force, Marine Corps and Navy is set to buy 2,800 aircraft and the Royal Navy and RAF about 150.

The UK government has already spent £120m on development costs.

It now has two months to decide whether to invest a further £1.5bn on ensuring the project's success.

Lockheed's design includes a fan to aid vertical landing

Radically different designs

The contest for the JSF contract will be played out in the skies above the US over the next few months.

Boeing's design, the X-32A, made its maiden flight in September. Lockheed's version, the X-35A, took to the skies for the first time on Wednesday, 25 October, at Edwards Air Force base, California.

The two design teams have adopted radically different methods of achieving short take-off and vertical landing.

The Boeing aircraft uses Harrier-style diversion of thrust, while the Lockheed design has a fan at the front of the aircraft, generating a powerful downdraft.

The winning design will be selected next Autumn.

Too ambitious

But some analysts are already saying that the JSF project is too ambitious.

The new fighter is meant to replace up to seven different types of aircraft currently in service.

The Navy's demand for vertical landing capability has meant compromises have had to be made on weight and drag co-efficient.

And the design brief is biased towards air-to-ground combat, rather than air-to-air.

JSF variants

CTOL - Conventional Take Off and Landing

STOVL - Short take-off and vertical landing

CV - Carrier-based

There is also question mark over JSF's affordability - which is seen as a crucial element in its design.

Each plane is meant to cost about $30m.

If it starts to exceed this figure as the projects costs creep up, the US Government could pull the plug on it altogether.

Boeing's X-32A joint strike fighter on a test flight

Nick Cook, of Jane's Defence, told BBC News 24: "If you get cost creep then you get Congress stepping in like the wrath of God.

"And then it could cancel the programme - and that is JSF's fundamental difficulty."

JSF is worth an estimated £15bn to British industry, the equivalent of an order for 150 Jumbo jets. UK companies have a 15% stake in the project.

Some companies have already invested millions of pounds in the hope of winning a contract.

Aircraft to be replaced by JSF

USAF - Lockheed Martin F-16, Fairchild A-10

US Marine Corps - F/A 18 Hornet, Boeing/BAE AV-8B Harrier II

Royal Navy/RAF - BAE Systems Sea Harrier FA2, GR7 Harrier II

If JSF is successful it will shape the future of the aerospace industry. Sitting on the sidelines is not an option.

BAE Systems is a full partner in the Lockheed bid - but also a key supplier of flight management systems and computers on the Boeing effort. British companies on Boeing's 'One Team' bid also includes Rolls Royce, Messier Dowty, Martin-Baker, Dowty and Flight Refuelling.

The winner takes all format of the contest means those companies on the losing side will be able to salvage little.

Some analysts predict the losing firm may have to give up making fighter aircraft altogether.