A cordial future?

By Dave Harvey
Consumer and business correspondent, BBC West

Elderflower cordial - a symbol of England at its greenest and most pleasant - should be the basis one of the calmest businesses in the country.

Bottle Green says the fizz is back in its business

But in 2008, Stroud-based cordial producer Bottle Green had a "horrible" year, according to its strategic planning director Nigel Osborne.

"Bottle glass went up 30%, our transport costs went up, sugar went up a lot because we buy it in euros and the pound fell against the euro," explains Mr Osborne.

But fast forward six months and the fizz is back in sparkling cordials.

The firm switched its transport contract, found a UK glass supplier and, says Mr Osborne, posh squash has turned out to be a recession winner.

"Our cordials are a kind of affordable treat," Nigel explains. "Ten pence or 15p a glass isn't much, and with more people entertaining at home it's selling well."

Encouraging signs

So how many West Country firms are in this position?

Two surveys suggest the worst may be over here.

First, Business Link contacted 1,000 small firms who use their government-backed advice service - 600 replied, and of them, 60% said they felt "more confident".

"It's encouraging, but not yet a cause for celebration," says Business Link advisor Brian Steel.

In six months' time, we'll start to see the fruits of today's labours Martyn Gregory, Deloitte's

Mr Steel sees small and medium sized firms every day in Bristol, Bath and the surrounding countryside. Of the 600 firms Business Link spoke to, only one in seven said they had been "severely affected" by the recession.

He also sees a pattern in the companies surviving and those feeling the pain.

"The clue's in the name, it's a credit crunch. Companies with a lot of debt are finding it tough out there. Others who don't are often trading as if there was no recession at all," he says.

When finance dried up in the autumn, Bristol's substantial financial sector was hard hit.

About a third of the city works for banks, accountants and lawyers who work on commercial deals. But another survey suggests those deals may gradually be returning.

"The news going into the pipe is good now, but the pipe is nine months long," adds Mr Steel.

In the works

Never mind green shoots, Martyn Gregory prefers pipes.

He is a senior partner at Deloitte in Bristol, cutting equity financed investments, management buyouts and the like.

Deloitte asked 250 medium sized firms if they expected the volume of transactions to increase in the next six months. Fifty-one per cent said yes.

In October 2008, that figure was 7%.

"The trouble is these deals take six to nine months to complete. So the news coming out of the pipe now all started back in September, when everything was frozen," adds Mr Gregory.

"In six months' time, we'll start to see the fruits of today's labours."