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As warnings of a full-blown recession grow, Dave Harvey, the BBC's business correspondent in the West Country, is travelling the region to see if real firms are feeling the pinch. This report is from Trowbridge.
Business is good in Trowbridge, but credit is hard to come by
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"We're bucking the trend", the man in a shockingly purple raincoat tells me.
"Gordon Brown might use 'the R word', but I won't yet. Not in Trowbridge. We're still trading well."
Mike Williams runs the local chamber of commerce here, and I was expecting this argument.
A fortnight ago, the British Chambers of Commerce issued a thoroughly gloomy report, claiming most of their members were selling less, and losing money.
"But the British Chamber is very northern-dominated," insists Mr Williams. "We're not as gloomy down here."
Sunny business
Trowbridge is still asleep. It is only 8:15 in the morning, so I must wait to see if Mr Williams' optimism is justified.
The Polish store is expanding
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It's the last stop on my Recession Road trip round the West Country, and once again I have three seasoned business gurus with me, on hand to dispense commercial wisdom and take the economic temperature of Wiltshire.
They say that when profits go down, hemlines go up.
At about 10:30 I discover another curious truth.
A stormy economy is good news for sunbed shops.
Pete Barbaruk has 70 sunbeds, and business is booming.
"Last year, trade went off and I thought 'here we go'," he says.
"But this year we've gone up again. Customers are telling me they've not booked a holiday for Christmas this year, they're getting a sunbed instead."
Bank bother
Turns out to be good times for Polish sausages as well.
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Trowbridge is a fairly modest county town of 40,000, but there are enough Poles here for The Polish Deli to move to a bigger shop.
Brian Steel, one of our advisers, has a word of advice.
"Many shops find that when they move they can lose customers, so make damn sure you tell people well in advance where you'll be, and hold a special promotion to get them to the new store."
By midday, I'm starting to wonder if Wiltshire is the Land the Crunch Forgot.
Then I meet Nick and Helena.
Both running successful small firms, both trying to expand, both turned down by the banks.
That's why we all call it a credit crunch remember?
Helena failed to get a bank loan
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Nick is meticulous and oozes reliability.
Turns out he used to fly choppers for the Navy.
Anyone would trust him, and his car park security scheme is turning a healthy profit.
"The banks have put their rates up, they're demanding more equity, they will lend - but it's much much harder," he says.
Tough on the ground
Helena has been turned down flat.
Her commercial recycling firm in Wotton Bassett is desperate to hire staff, and has customers queuing up.
"I can't get any of the British Banks to lend to me," she says. "We're only a year old, and they won't touch start-up firms at the moment."
The Business Link advisors go into overdrive.
Calls are made, appointments booked, you get the impression that when these guys phone, bankers listen.
But will they lend?
Peter Mandelson may meet the executives, and urge them to get lending, but on the ground small firms are finding it awful tough.
"These guys are all trading hard, working well, being smart," Brian Reed points out, not a little frustrated.
"But it's like the pipe is blocked. We've got to get lending to these guys again, or they really will go bust, and then we'll see some real pain."
A day then, of soaring sunbed sales and hot polish sausage shops.
And two more small firms for my case book labelled: "waiting for the bank manager".
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