Is it safe to invest in Russia?

By Konstantin Rozhnov
Business reporter, BBC News, Moscow

The battle for control over the British-Russian energy venture TNK-BP has spooked foreign investors in Russia.

The TNK-BP power struggle has unnerved investors

Russia is obviously attractive, as it is seen as one of the fastest emerging economies in the world.

Yet concerns about the country's behaviour towards some of its foreign partners remain widespread.

So would a Russian investment banker recommend a non-Russian friend to invest here?

"I would recommend him to invest in Russia, of course," says Ruben Vardanian, head of one of the oldest and largest private investment banks in Russia, Troika Dialog.

"If I talked him out of doing it, I should be working in another business - or in this business, but in another country.

"But I would have a serious conversation with him beforehand."

Not energy

Such a conversation would focus on how much risk his friend would be prepared to take, and how much he or she would be willing to invest.

Investors must understand that there are not just Shell and BP stories in Russia, but also stories of Cargill, Coca-Cola Ruben Vardanian, Troika Dialog

He would also want to find out about expected returns on the investment, and whether or not his friend would be willing to wait for a while before the money starts working.

But most of all, he would urge his friend to consider investing in industries other than oil and gas, where the Russian state's involvement has caused a great deal of upheaval for foreign investors in recent years.

In other industries, nobody complains about the Russian state's involvement, he explains.

"Investors must understand that there are not just Shell and BP stories in Russia, but also stories of Cargill, Coca-Cola and other companies that invest in other industries - thus far without a hitch."

Besides, he points out, investors face challenges elsewhere in the world too, not just in Russia.

"I believe investors have stopped cherishing an illusion that there is a place where everything is quiet and wonderful," he says.

Predictable future

Under former President Vladimir Putin, the state's role in the Russian economy expanded a great deal.

Investors cheered when Mr Putin's ally, Mr Medvedev, was appointed

And yet, business leaders and investors, who are traditionally eager for the state to scale back its commercial involvement, cheered when Mr Putin's ally Dmitry Medvedev was appointed president.

For businesses, the macroeconomic stability achieved under Mr Putin was preferable to the volatile environment they were operating in under Mr Putin's predecessor Boris Yeltsin.

"In the nineties, we were living day by day in fear of the death of the president [Mr Yeltsin]," says Mr Vardanian.

The macroeconomic situation was unpredictable, leaving companies unable to plan ahead, which is the worst situation to be in for business leaders, he explains.

Risk and reward

Beyond the political arena, investors ought to also understand the way Russian culture is influenced as much by its eastern neighbours as it is by the West.

Many Western investors who would expect to be met with a vastly different culture when investing in, say, China are often surprised by the differences between their own and Russian culture.

"We are a Eurasian culture which consists of both European and Asian cultural values and approaches," Mr Vardanian says.

Hence, although Russia has developed much tighter political and economical connections with the West during the last two decades, and in spite of it having become an integral part of the global economy, it remains a very young democracy.

These factors must be remembered by those who are thinking of investing in Russia, Mr Vardanian insists, pointing out that although the risks may be great, so are the potential rewards.