How to twist arms and influence people

By Hugh Levinson
BBC Radio 4

The rules of international trade affect all of us - from the prices we pay for our food to whether we have a job. Those rules are set in tough - occasionally ruthless - negotiations.

Talks are held behind closed doors.

Yet several serving and former negotiators have given us a glimpse of what really goes on.

"Sometimes it's intimidating," says Elliot Page, a negotiator for the Eastern Caribbean states.

"Sometimes it's scary."

Although most trade talks are polite, that's not always the case.

Poor countries are often overwhelmed

Charlene Barshefsky, a former US trade representative, described seeing "people slamming their fist on the table and reaching across the table in an aggressive, or physically aggressive manner".

Ms Barshefsky says such behaviour happens regularly - and at unpredictable moments.

For Pedro Camargo de Neto, who used to represent Brazil in trade talks, some negotiators from the big economies are simply "bullies".

Meetings are deliberately dragged out until early in the morning, he says.

"Then they say 'you might as well sign here' or 'this is good for you and you don't know anything, sign here and keep your mouth shut'. It's pretty bad."

Pros and cons

The current Doha round of multilateral talks at the World Trade Organization (WTO) are suspended.

Have you got what it takes to be a trade negotiator when the going gets tough? Quiz: Beat the world trade system

But negotiations are continuing for regional trade agreements and bilateral deals - which, we are told, are notorious for arm-twisting.

If a small economy tries to block proposals from bigger nations, it can face pressure exerted directly on its head of government.

Mr Page says this could, for example, involve threats to aid programmes.

"Leaders in poorer countries who need these projects, these food programmes, need a river dammed, need a school in a particular village, weigh the costs and benefits of pushing a position on negotiations versus the immediate benefit of having a school in a village."

Lobby power

Smaller countries engaged in direct talks with more powerful economies often find they are simply outgunned by the other side.

"A typical example would be myself on one side of the table," Mr. Page says.

"On the other side of the table I will have - maybe on the EU side or the American side - 15 officials."

Mr Lamy says the system is not as ugly as it looks

Richard Steinberg, a former negotiator for the US Trade Representative's office, says big economies like the USA have one huge weapon - the threat of closing off access to their giant market of 300m consumers by raising tariffs.

"When the US does that to a small country it can have a catastrophic impact," he says.

Professor Steinberg says the threat of tariffs are used in a very "artful and tailored way".

"If the USTR is authorised to impose tariffs of, say, $1bn (£500m), it will first publish a list of targeted goods worth $5bn.

This will bring the foreign exporters of these goods to Washington DC to protest.

The USTR's office will then tell them to lobby their own government - thus mobilising a powerful domestic constituency in their country.

Predictable system

The EU used a similar technique when fighting American steel tariffs.

The EU threatened tariffs on American citrus products, thus mobilising growers to oppose the steel tariffs.

Many of the citrus growers are based in Florida, a key state in presidential politics.

WTO Director General Pascal Lamy admits that sometimes talks resemble "a dog fight".

But he says appearances are deceptive.

Although all sides are trying to maximise their interests, they have a deeper need for a predictable, stable, rules-based system.

"It's the contrary of the law of the jungle," he says.

War by Other Means, on Tuesday, 19 December on BBC Radio 4, 2000 UK time