'Price threat' to food security

Food security cannot be taken for granted

The world's poorest countries will become more dependent on global markets for their food security, a study of farming trends has argued.

Food output is not growing fast enough in many developing countries to supply their growing populations, a joint United Nations-OECD report concludes.

As a result, countries importing large amounts of cereals and meat will be vulnerable to market fluctuations.

Attempts to boost agriculture through a new global trade deal have stalled.

Trade battle

Although Europe and the US have vowed to eliminate certain farm subsidies and tariffs on agricultural produce, the measures agreed to date do not go far enough to satisfy developing countries.

They argue that the huge financial support given to farmers by the US and other industrialised countries forces down prices and makes it difficult for their own producers to compete.

Agricultural production and food consumption will both grow faster in developing countries than in wealthier nations, according to an analysis of global farming trends over the next 10 years.

India's share of global agricultural trade is set to grow

The report - produced by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization - does not take into account changes to agricultural markets currently being proposed as part of the faltering Doha trade round.

It warns that developing countries are being hampered by low agricultural productivity, which can only be tackled by greater investment in infrastructure, education and training.

Market prices for cereals and other staple crops are expected to fall over the next decade as fierce global competition offsets rising demand.

Despite this, price volatility and growing exposure to global markets could leave countries struggling to meet their food needs.

"The poorest developing countries will be increasingly dependent on world markets for their food security and so more vulnerable to international price fluctuations," the report said.

New players

Brazil and India - at the forefront of efforts to reform global agricultural practices - are expected to increase their share of trade in food.

The US is expected to remain the world's largest wheat exporter, although its market share will be eroded by the growth of exports from lower-cost markets in Latin America.

The EU, US, Canada, Australia and Argentina will continue to dominate meat exports, although Ukraine and Kazakhstan are expected to increase their share of sales over time.

The strength of global meat sales could hinge on how any future outbreaks of BSE, foot and mouth disease and avian flu were contained, the report cautioned.