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Thursday, September 16, 1999 Published at 15:18 GMT 16:18 UK


Business

Q&A: Booming Britain




[ image:  ]
Gordon Brown says that the UK economy will grow much faster than previously expected. BBC Economics Reporter Chris Giles explains what the Chancellor's annoucement on higher growth means to the ordinary citizen.

Will I be better off?

Possibly.

The key issue is whether faster economic growth with low inflation can be sustained for more than just a few years.

If that is true - and Gordon Brown only hinted that he believes that is the case - the answer is yes. If there is a long term shift to faster economic growth, the amount produced by each person will go up and so should their pay.

Unfortunately many Chancellors have promised to raise the long term growth rate of the economy since the war and none were successful. It would be wise to be cautious about Gordon Brown's chances now.

Are there going to be more jobs?

Probably. Permanently faster economic growth normally means more jobs and lower unemployment. But faster growth can also be achieved by existing employees producing more.

Will the government have more money to give away in tax cuts and higher public spending ahead of the election?

The public finances are in good shape. If growth is faster they will get into even better shape as tax receipts rise and some benefit expenditure falls.

In theory, the government would be able to spend that extra income either by raising public spending on health and education or pensions, or it could reduce taxation.

But the government has pledged to abide by a special set of rules to prove that it will be prudent with taxpayers' money.

Under those rules, Gordon Brown would only be allowed to give this money away if he claims the faster growth is permanent.

If it was temporary and nothing fundamental has changed in the economy, a spending spree or tax cuts would endanger the long term health of the public finances.

On past evidence, we can expect tax cuts and more spending promises in the run up to the election. Today's speech by Gordon Brown is making a first attempt to pave the way for this. He was hinting that the faster growth he forecasts for the economy is permanent.

Does stronger growth man higher interest rates?

Not necessarily. Only if it threatens inflation. Again it depends on whether something fundamental has changed in the economy or whether it is just a short term increase in growth.

House prices are already rising in many parts of the country. Does this mean they are likely to go up even further?

Yes. If demand and prosperity is rising and the number of properties cannot go up, the only way for the supply of housing to equal demand would be for house prices to rise.

Will the greater prosperity reach some parts of the country, for example the North and Wales, that do not seem to have shared in economic growth so far?

Though it's a terrible phrase, growth is likely to trickle down to areas that have been doing worse. In prosperous areas wages will go up making it cheaper for companies to move to cheaper areas. Unfortunately this might be a very slow process.

Are these growth figures a surprise?

Not really. Outside forecasters have been updating and pushing up their forecasts for growth since March.

Has Gordon Brown been lucky, or an exceptionally able chancellor?

It's hard to pinpoint any major economic mistakes Gordon Brown has made. But on the same token it's equally difficult to explain the improved outlook from actions the Government has taken.

It is also important to recognise that the UK is not by any means unique in having reasonably strong growth and low inflation at the moment. It is a phenomenon enjoyed by many of the industrial world's economies.

Won't this 'boom' be followed by a bust?

It can hardly be described as a boom yet. But if the economy does grow at over 3% for a few years, it could well be followed by a bust.

That would come if the growth sparked inflation. Then the Bank of England would be forced to raise interest rates sharply which could stop the economy in its tracks. Gordon Brown today is saying that he hopes faster growth will not lead to inflation.

How does this growth compare to other countries?

This year, Britain's growth will be one of the slowest in Europe and much slower than America.

But the forecasts for the next few years show Britain will be growing at least as quickly as the average for European and industrialised countries.

It is important not to suggest Britain is storming ahead of the rest of the industrial world.





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