Ice-cream sellers feel the heat

There's chilling news for the American consumer: ice-cream prices are about to sky-rocket.

According to the National Ice Cream Retailers Association (NICRA), the price of an average cone could jump by 30% this summer alone.

Record US milk prices are combining with unexpected hikes in the cost of ingredients such as vanilla and cocoa.

Economists worry that this may be only the tip of the icecream-berg: inflation seems to be resurgent.

The white stuff

Rising ice-cream prices are the result of what NICRA calls a "perfect storm" - an unprecedented and unlikely combination of circumstances.

Vanilla prices are high because storms ruined the crop in Madagascar, source of much of the global crop.

And chocolate prices have been boosted by the chaotic security situation in parts of West Africa, where countries such as the Ivory Coast are major cocoa producers.

Most damaging of all to the ice-cream lover, US dairy prices are at a record high, the result of a sharp decrease of production and bans on the import of Canadian cattle.

Butter and cheese producers have been buying up available stocks of milk, sending the futures market to an all-time high this month.

The importance of ice-cream

Analysts say high milk prices will have an effect far beyond the ice-cream industry, and could result in more expensive cheese, pizza and cappucino.

More seriously, the threat is part of a revival in US inflation - a factor that had more or less disappeared during the past few years' economic slowdown.

Overall headline inflation figures remain low: the 0.5% figure recorded in March was among the highest in recent months.

But economists forecast a rebound this summer, as the effects of strong growth filter through to prices.

In particular, prices for steel, oil, property and computer chips have registered strong gains this year.

The worry is that expectations of higher inflation will lead to higher pay claims, which in turn will fuel future prices rises.