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Sunday, 9 June, 2002, 12:26 GMT 13:26 UK
Turkey recovery hopes rise
Turkish flag in front of oil installations
Economists think Turkey can meet growth targets
A much sharper than expected rise in industrial output in Turkey has raised hopes that the country could soon recover from a deep recession.

Industrial output rose 14.1% in April from a year earlier, well above a growth rate of 7.8% as predicted by economists.

Manufacturing and utilities did well, but mining performed badly.

"This would confirm that a recovery is underway," said Societe Generale's Cigdem Guclu.

The rise in output has convinced many economists that Turkey will achieve a 3% economic growth target it has agreed with the International Monetary Fund which has agreed to a $16bn loan for the country.

Last year, the Turkish economy shrank 9.4%.

Problems remain

But Turkey is not out of the woods yet.

"A significant, but still quite modest, recovery in domestic demand is likely only in the second half of the year, if all goes well," Ms Guclu said.

While April's growth in industrial output was" nothing like as strong as suggested by the March data which reflected restocking and rising exports, rather than domestic demand".

In March, industrial production rose 18.9%.

During the January to April period, Turkey's industrial output rose an average of 6.1%.

A year earlier, the average for the period showed a 4% decline.

See also:

09 Jun 02 | Europe
17 May 02 | Europe
21 Feb 02 | Business
29 Apr 01 | Europe
08 Mar 02 | Country profiles
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