Opec's fading power

There have often been disagreements within the cartel

The power of once-mighty Opec - the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries - is indisputably ebbing away.

Opec's manipulation of oil production once held the world to ransom, prompting the 1973 oil shock that sent the whole global economy into turmoil.

Opec members

Middle East

Saudi Arabia

Iraq

UAE

Kuwait

Iran

Qatar

Africa

Nigeria

Libya

Algeria

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia

South America

Venezuela

It was also blamed for the oil price spike that caused widespread fuel protests across much of Europe in 2000.

But the cartel's leaders have recently been openly telling the world that their days or power are numbered.

"We cannot control the oil market anymore," admitted Kuwaiti oil minister Adel al-Subaih last November.

New oil streams

The reason is simple: member countries control a much less significant share of the world's total oil supplies than previously.

Non-Opec countries such as Russia, Norway and Mexico have ramped up production while new flows of oil fields have been discovered in Africa and South America.

While Opec still controls more than half of the world's crude oil exports, the world league of top-10 oil producers now contains just three Opec members.

This means that Opec can easily be undermined by non members when it decides to shore up prices by cutting production.

And many Opec states have already said that they are no longer prepared to cut their own exports if other countries merrily pump away and meet the extra demand created in the marketplace.

Falling prices

Crude oil prices fell by a third during 2001, despite an aggressive series of cuts by Opec which saw total exports reduced by about one fifth.

When Opec's effectiveness has previously faded, it has usually been because of disagreements within its own ranks.

Non-Opec countries

Russia

Mexico

Norway

Oman

Angola

At the end of 1998 for example, oil prices slumped to $9 a barrel - largely because member countries were not sticking to their agreed quotas.

Those low prices eventually spurred members into renewed agreements and obedience.

Rallying support

This time, Opec's only hope is on calling on the cooperation of non -member countries - Russia, Norway and Mexico.

Determined to get prices higher again, Opec issued an ultimatum to five non member countries saying that the cartel members would not rein in supply unless those countries did likewise.

So far, they have won support from the countries.

But analysts are sceptical as to whether non member countries will continue to play ball.

Russia has already made noises about not sticking to their side of the agreement.

Consuming countries such as the US and the UK still quake at the words and actions of the cartel.

But Opec itself knows only too well that the future direction of oil prices lies out of its hands.