Shares gloom ahead of fourth quarter

Equity investors suffered their worst quarter since 1987

Gloom prevailed across the world when traders in the world's stock markets kicked off the fourth quarter of 2001 ahead of an anticipated ninth cut in US interest rates on Tuesday.

The last three months have been extremely painful for equity investors, with the 11 September terrorist attacks on the US making matters worse.

Few analysts expect the situation in the markets to improve soon.

In the US, the blue-chip New York Stock Exchange wrapped up its worst quarter since 1987.

While its hi-tech rival Nasdaq fared even worse, ending the third quarter of 2001 30% lower than it started, thereby recording its worst quarter in history.

The first two days of the new quarter saw markets in Asia fall back, as dealers rushed to take profits from the slim gains made last week.

By lunchtime on 2 October, the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo was down 45.41 points at 9,926.87, having made some gains the day before.

Combating recession

The fortunes of US companies have tumbled throughout 2001, despite serious efforts by the US authorities to fend off a recession.

The US economic slowdown has spread fast across the world.

Many Wall Street professionals believe the US, Japan and other parts of the world are in a recession already.

If so, the US economy has hit the rocks despite generous tax cuts and eight previous interest rate reductions.

These measures are now expected to be followed up with a ninth cut in rates on Tuesday and a government economic stimulus package that, according to the US Treasury, could be announced within days.

However, it is far from clear whether any added stimulus would come in the form of further tax cuts or a spending package aimed at pump-priming the economy; Treasury spokeswoman Michele Davis declined to elaborate.

Changing fortunes

When tax cut promises were first made by President George W Bush during his election campaign, they were not aimed at preventing an economic slump.

On the contrary, at the time he told the American people that things were good so it was about time to hand something back to those who had made it so.

In February 2000, he argued that it was a matter of dividing the spoils to celebrate the longest economic expansion in American history.

By February 2001, America's economic fortunes had turned and Mr Bush had changed his tune.

Then his argument for tax cuts was that the slowing US economy needed a jolt from the government.

"Tax relief is right, and tax relief is urgent. The long economic expansion that began almost ten years ago is faltering," he said at the time.

US stock markets

The Nasdaq index, which is heavily loaded with shares in high technology companies, fell more than 30% during the third quarter of 2001, its second worst quarter in history.

The Nasdaq fell 1.22% or 18.36 points on Monday to close at 1,480.44.

The Dow Jones industrial average index of leading US shares fell 0.12% or 10.73 points to 8,836.83 on Monday.

The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 0.23%, down 2.39 points to 1,038.55.