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Tuesday, 1 May, 2001, 15:20 GMT 16:20 UK
Is there a US energy crisis?
![]() BBC News Online's Briony Hale examines whether the United States is truly facing an energy crisis.
It was undoubtedly a national embarrassment when California was plunged into darkness during its recent energy crisis.
So is the warning by American Vice-President Dick Cheney - that the whole of the US could face worse problems than the blackout-stricken California - realistic? It seems a strange admission, and somewhat of an exaggeration, since California's problems are very much specific to that particular state.
"This crisis will likely be far worse than the two oil shocks of 1973 and 1979," Mr Simmons claimed. Wildlife controversy But these forecasts of doom must be viewed alongside some of the highly controversial changes that President George W. Bush would like to push through.
And all this in a country that has not built so much as one new refinery for 20 years because of the environmental difficulties of securing a site. Some of Mr Bush's opponents have accused him of shifting energy policy in return for the large campaign contributions he received from the oil industry. If the US population is to accept such a policy shift, they will need to be convinced that there is a real problem out there.
Malcolm Keay, deputy head of Energy and the Environment at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, also believes that the word 'crisis' is being used excessively to create a favourable climate to introduce non-green legislation. "The fact that you may have to import more energy to cover demand is not a crisis - it's just a change," Mr Keay told BBC News Online. Genuine problems ahead But although few analysts think that the US is about to face widespread blackouts, there is a strong case for reforming US energy policy.
And Mr Keay says that Bush's changes should not be dismissed with an overdose of cynicism. He believes there is a genuine need to overhaul US energy policy. This week, for example, the price of gasoline futures being traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) are at their highest level ever. They have risen well beyond the highs seen during the Gulf war without so much as a disruption to crude oil supplies. This illustrates a problem local to the US itself. Price spikes
Monday's sharp rise was sparked by a fire at the Illinois refinery in the Midwest. But the fact that one refinery can cause such a spike demonstrates an infrastructure that is running close to capacity.
The UK has undergone similar reforms, with lead-free petrol and ultra-low sulphur fuels available at pumps across the country. But there has been much less conformity in the US, with each state making its own laws as to quality and the timeframe of the changes. This is why one fire at one refinery in Illinois can cause prices to spike - because it is has not been possible for refineries in different states to increase production and meet the demand. Environmental concerns President Bush is now pushing to end America's vulnerability to such changes by expanding its capacity. Both Bush and Clinton recognised the need to meet increasing energy demand. During the eight years of Clinton Administration, the focus had been on conservation and renewable energy.
Mr Bush is approaching the problem from the supply side, increasing the nation's capacity to make more electricity, refine more petrol and generate nuclear power rather than trying to cut energy use. The fundamental difference between the two approaches boils down to the importance laid on environmental issues. "From what we've seen so far, the Bush administration is far more pro-oil than pro-environment," Jane Collin told BBC News Online. Mr Bush - as demonstrated when he refused to ratify the Kyoto agreement - believes that legislation has swung too far in the favour of the environmentalists. And one way to try and enlist the support of the public for high-risk strategies such as developing nuclear power could be to use the "energy crisis" scare-tactic.
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