Shock fall in US jobs

Manufacturing has been the hardest hit

US unemployment climbed to 4.3% in March, the highest level in 20 months, as the country's economic slowdown deepens.

Businesses cut 86,000 jobs during the month, the largest reduction in workers on the payroll since 1991.

I think this economy is like the Pillsbury dough boy, it continues to soften

US Labor Secretary Elaine Chao

US Labor Secretary Elaine Chao said the steep loss in jobs pointed to a rising risk of recession -and showed that warnings from the Bush administration about an economic slowdown were realistic.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell on the news, shedding more than 150 points in early trading.

'Great concern'

The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% in February, matching analysts expectations, according to Labor department figures.

It last stood at 4.3% in June and July of 1999.

The plunge in payroll numbers - the number people actually in work - marked the first decline since August 2000, when payrolls fell by 79,000.

This is seen as a more relevant indicator of economic health than the unemployment rate, which tends to lag behind the wider US economy.

The surprising elements here are the declines in various service categories

Carol Stone, Nomura Securities

Labor Secretary Chao said the rising jobless total was of 'great concern'.

"I think this economy is like the Pillsbury dough boy, it continues to soften," Chao said, referring to a popular TV ad.

Wall Street analysts had forecast that 58,000 jobs would be created last month, in contrast to the loss actually posted.

Asked if the March data implied a greater risk of recession, Mrs Chao replied: "Yes, these figures do indeed indicate that."

Widespread weakness

There were also signs that the weakness in manufacturing was spreading to the service sector, with more job losses at bars and restaurants, department stores, car dealers and temporary employment services.

The decline in total payrolls followed a 140,000 gain in February, according to revised figures.

The figures will increase pressure on the US central bank, The Federal Reserve, to cut interest rates further, before its next scheduled meeting in May.

The economy is sinking, sinking faster

Roberta Brusca, Global Consulting

Carol Stone, deputy chief economist of Nomura Securities International, in New York, said: "I don't know whether it will be in the next couple of days, but this adds to and brings more force to the argument for an intermeeting rate cut.

"We've been thinking for some months we would get a drop (in employment), and now we have it.

"The surprising elements here are the declines in various service categories.

"This indicates that weakness is occurring in new areas, such as retail.

"A slightly disappointing thing is that wages didn't slow down, but it could mean the declines were concentrated in lower-paying jobs."

Downside

Roberta Brusca, chief economist at Global Consulting, says: "This is much weaker than expected, I think this is the kind of number that could give the Fed pause.

We had a number of Fed officials talking yesterday (Thursday) saying they're optimistic, but they're cautious, the risks are on the downside.

"Well guess what - the risks aren't just on the downside.

"The economy's on the downside. The economy is sinking, sinking faster.

"The temporary help that we got from the construction sector looks like it has gone away.

"We don't see a lot of lasting momentum in things like mortgage applications.

"It's a lot of weakness and I would really be looking for the Fed to make an intermeeting move."