Ireland's 'foot-and-mouth' fears

The government's stringent measures on foot-and-mouth are widely supported

To some it might seem a shade draconian to cancel girl guide outings and call off the national hairdressing championships but Ireland is taking the threat of foot-and-mouth disease very seriously.

Up until Thursday when an outbreak in Louth was confirmed, the country had been free of the disease that has caused such havoc among UK farming communities.

Lansdowne Road was empty on Saturday

With agriculture and tourism forming the two biggest components of the economy, the Irish government and people will be keen to contain the outbreak.

A huge range of social, sporting, business, religious and political events have been ditched including the annual St Patrick's Day celebrations and Six Nations rugby matches against England and Scotland.

The public have been advised not to visit the countryside.

No craic

The four-day St Patricks Day celebrations have had to go, at a cost of about 35m Irish pounds ($40m; £28m) in lost revenue to hoteliers and restauranteurs.

Usually they attract about 1.3 million people to Dublin's streets.

Angling: Off limits until late April

Frank Doyle, manager of Davy Byrne's pub in central Dublin, said the cancellation of the festival was a "colossal blow".

"Usually this would be a huge weekend for us business-wise but this year we'll lose out.

"I'd say some extra people will probably come out for a few jars but to be honest, the craic won't be in it."

Angling ban

National airline Aer Lingus has reported a 10% drop in advance bookings for the period compared with last year.

Niche tourism businesses related to activities such as angling, horseriding and hillwalking have also been heavily hit in recent weeks.

A blanket ban has been imposed on angling until 20 April.

Despite the disruption to business and social activities, the government's efforts to contain foot-and-mouth have received widespread support.

"People genuinely feel it's the right thing to do," says Ciaran Fitzgerald, food and drink director at the Irish Business & Employers Confederation (Ibec).

Questions over restrictions

Although there remains broad support for the measures, some dissent has surfaced.

Opposition parties have criticised the government for refusing to compensate the tourism industry for losses while the Irish Small & Medium Enterprises group warned of a "doomsday scenario" and said questions now had to be asked about how long the restrictions would last.

The Irish Hotels Federation said more than 500 conferences and tens of thousands of bookings had been lost and called for "more rational and measured" controls.

"The business we are losing is perishable - once it is gone, it is gone for good.You can't buy it back again."

GDP down, inflation up

While any outbreak of foot-and-mouth could be economically disastrous, the precautions against it are already costing the economy dearly.

Ibec's Fitzgerald says that, even without any outbreak of the disease, the foot-and-mouth factor is expected to shave 1-1.5% off gross domestic product (GDP) this year and push inflation up 0.5% to about 4.5%.

UK demand for Irish meat has risen

This suggests the economy is losing about 17m Irish pounds ($20m; £14m) a week.

Besides hotels and tourism operators, those hit include farmers, who have had to slaughter thousands of animals as a precaution, as well as slaughterhouses.

Any disease outbreak would have a much wider impact across sectors such as food and drink, retailing, tourism, transport and energy.

Industries which require access to or across agricultural land - construction, mining and forestry - could also be affected.

Meat market

Ibec says the situation is particularly sensitive for the food and drinks industry, which provides 47,000 jobs - 25% of manufacturing sector employment - and has annual turnover of IR£11bn.

The sector's net export earnings equate to more than one quarter of total national net exports - a figure that shows any ban on meat and dairy exports affects Ireland much more severely than it does the UK, where agribusiness forms a much smaller component of the economy.

Agri-food in Ireland

10% of GDP

11% of employment

27% of net earnings from trade

The fact is not lost on Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern who, at a meeting in Washington, asked US President George W Bush to exempt Irish products from a US ban on EU meat.

The market is worth about IR£100m a year to Irish meat producers.

A ceasing of all meat exports could alone take 2-2.5% off GDP, although the full impact of this might be avoided through "intervention-type arrangements", Ibec says.

There would also be a knock-on effect on the packaging, transport and shipping industries that would take a further 0.5% from GDP, Ibec says.

Ireland exports

90% of its beef

80% of its lamb

60% of its pork

Source: Ibec

However, as long as foot-and-mouth is avoided, Irish food and drink is expected to benefit.

UK and French demand for Irish meat products has risen substantially in recent weeks, lifting prices.

Meat alone counts for 5% of the consumer price index and food 22%, Ibec says.

Tourism struggle

Looking at the economy as a whole, the benefits of higher food and drink demand would also be outweighed by the negative impact on tourism, Mr Fitzgerald says.

At present, Ireland derives about a quarter of its tourism revenue from visitors from the UK.

Tourism in Ireland

Brings in IR£4bn a year

Employs 160,000

IR£17m already lost due to foot-and-mouth

Losses of IR£500m forecast

Tourism chief John Dully says 17m Irish pounds has already been lost due to cancellations, while the outlook is for a loss of one million tourists and a revenue drop of 500m Irish pounds, even before there was a single foot-and-mouth case.

Without any government compensation for business affected, about 20,000-30,000 jobs could also go.

Mr Dully said March and April were the most important months for the industry, since this is the time many people take decisions about holidays later in the year.

"If we don't somehow get it right over those two months, it can be catastrophic," he said.

"If they [tourists] are faced with possible restrictions on what they can do in Ireland, they may give it a miss.

"If the crisis continues through April and May, the losses could be even more serious... It would take years to rebuild a severely damaged sector."