Japan polls: No great victory

Women made gains in the polls

By regional analyst Kate Liang

Japan's ruling coalition may have managed to cling on to power in June's elections, but the results make grim reading for its leaders.

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which dominates the coalition, is now in one of its weakest positions in recent decades, and no one is hailing this as a great victory.

The results will prompt some soul-searching among LDP leaders, and may signal years of uncertainty amongst the party and its coalition partners over the future direction of policy.

Low turnout helped Mori's ruling coalition

One likely result is that the LDP will be more heavily reliant on its coalition partner, the Buddhist-backed New Komeito party.

This could be bad news for economic reform which Komeito is unenthusiastic about, as the party may now be in a position to demand more policy concessions from its partners than before.

Komeito itself is uneasy about the alliance with the LDP. It too fared badly in the election, and some members are blaming the party's poor performance on the coalition with the LDP.

Clumsy remarks

The personal unpopularity of Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori is also being blamed for the government's poor showing, and although he has been asked to stay on as prime minister, his credibility has taken a nosedive.

Yoshiro Mori blamed for poor showing

Voters were outraged by remarks in which he described Japan as "divine", and throughout the campaign he has looked increasingly clumsy.

The opposition made big gains in urban areas, with city voters responding to calls for structural reforms to tackle Japan's deep economic problems.

The main winner was the Democratic Party, which increased its seats in the lower house from 95 to 127.

This success came despite what could have been on the face of it an unpopular message, with policies calling for higher taxes and cutbacks in government spending.

It seems that in urban areas at least voters are ready to accept painful remedies for Japan's economic malaise.

Women

Young, female candidates in particular appealed to urban voters looking for a change after years of male political dominance.

At 25 Yoko Hara is the youngest person ever elected

Altogether, 35 women won seats in the lower house of parliament, the highest number of female members since 1946.

However, that translates into only 7% of lawmakers, meaning that politics in Japan is still largely a male preserve.

And while urban voters clearly voiced their desire for change, the LDP hung on to power largely because of its entrenched position in rural areas.

Bitter pill

The LDP has traditionally had a close relationship with rural communities, where personal ties still count for much.

But if the LDP is to be thrown back on its core constituency, this casts doubt on whether it will be in a position to respond to calls for the "bitter medicine" of economic reform from the urban electorate.

The re-appointment of Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa sends a message of more of the same: big state spending packages coupled with mild reform.

If this does not yield results - and it has not so far - what has been a disastrous election for the LDP this time around may translate into the loss of political power by the next election.