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Last Updated: Sunday, 23 March 2008, 16:56 GMT
Taiwanese hope of new China chapter
By Caroline Gluck
BBC News, Taipei

 Ma Ying-jeou (Centre) and his wife and running mate Vincent Siew.
Mr Ma's honeymoon is likely to be short, analysts say

The decisive win by the KMT's presidential candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, is being seen as a milestone in Taiwan's political development, where he will become the first non-native Taiwanese to become president since Taiwan became a democracy.

Mr Ma was born in Hong Kong to Chinese parents.

And many had suggested that his mainlander background could handicap him at a time of surging pride among the Taiwanese in their native roots - carefully fostered under President Chen Shui-bian's administration to counterbalance decades of sinicization when Taiwan was under the KMT's one-party rule.

In previous elections, the governing Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, had successfully highlighted national identity issues and the threats from China to mobilise grassroots supporters.

This time, though, much more practical issues - the economy and good governance - were the main issues influencing people's voting behaviour.

These are very ambitious plans which will require the other side's good will, but we have no choice
Ma Ying-jeou
President-elect

"Mr Ma's success shows us that ethnic mobilisation by the political parties will not get them anywhere. Most people are tired of it, especially when it's whipped up during election periods," says Wu Yu-shan, at Academia Sinica's Institute of Political Science.

"This is a turning point. Hopefully this will turn a new page in Taiwan's domestic politics. The losing party, the DPP, will have to do a lot of soul-searching to find a new direction. This is the biggest crisis the party is facing in its recent history¿ and I would not exclude the possibility of it breaking up into different political groups."

New beginning

Many are hoping Mr Ma's win will also open a new chapter in the island's turbulent relations with its giant neighbour and political rival, China, which regards the island as part of its territory.

He had promised voters an economic revitalisation and better ties with China.

He wants to put aside all political controversies
Emile Sheng
Professor at Soochow University

In the short term, he wants to lift existing restrictions on doing business with China and push for regular direct flights.

The Kuomintang, or KMT, banned direct flights with China after they fled to Taiwan at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949.

But in recent years, there have been a limited number of charter flights during the main Chinese holiday festivals.

Mr Ma also hopes to negotiate a comprehensive economic co-operation agreement with Beijing.

In the longer term, he would like to ink a peace accord, and agree military confidence-building measures to avoid potential conflicts.

"These are very ambitious plans which will require the other side's good will, but we have no choice," he told reporters one day after his election.

However, he has also made clear that before any peace talks can go forward, Beijing must first remove missiles targeted at the island.

Caution

"He will have smoother relations with China," predicts Ta-Chen Cheng, professor at the Graduate School of Strategic Studies at Tamkang University.

"At lot of people expect Mr Ma to improve the situation very quickly, especially since he says he'd like to have direct air links within one year. He will work to resolve this quickly - and he has a good team in place."

But many analysts are cautioning against overly-high expectations.

A Taiwanese man collects the campaign flags in Taipei.
The Taiwanese voted for change and will be keen to see rewards

"Economically, we can expect better relations," says China-watcher, George Tsai, at Chinese Culture University.

"But politically, we should not expect too much. The two sides need to build up mutual trust. Improved political relations will not be his first priority."

Emile Sheng, professor of political science at Soochow University, agrees.

"He wants to put aside all political controversies, and open up direct links and investment restrictions.

"But half of it depends on the Taiwan government and half depends on the Beijing government whether it is willing to open up economic ties without any political strings attached. I think that still remains to be seen.

"We'll be able to see a more peaceful cross strait relationship because we know Mr Ma is not going to do anything dramatic to provoke the Beijing government. But there are a lot of difficulties to be managed."

Public pressure

The scale of Mr Ma's electoral victory - which netted him 2.2 million votes more than his rival - is a sign that the public wanted change and a new direction after eight years of Chen Shui-bian's administration, which had brought the island into sharper conflict with China and, at times, also strained ties with the United States.

The US - the island's most important ally - was among several countries that had strongly criticised a referendum backed by President Chen on applying for UN membership under the name "Taiwan", rather than the island's official title, the Republic of China, calling it unnecessarily provocative.

The move failed to muster enough support to pass.

I think his honeymoon period will be very short
Wu Yu-shan
Academia Sinica

"In the case of the UN admission, the DPP's proposal is tantamount to a disaster," Mr Ma told foreign reporters, "causing very serious downgrading of our mutual trust between Taiwan and the United States and actually antagonising many of our friends in the United Nations."

Mr Ma will have to do some diplomatic fence-building.

He has already said he will visit a number of foreign countries before he is formally inaugurated in May.

He also wants to widen the island's diplomatic space, which has been squeezed by China that often blocks the island joining international organisations. Mr Ma says he will take a flexible and pragmatic approach.

The Taiwanese electorate have voted for change.

But, Wu Yu-shan, at Academia Sinica, warns that they may have overly-high expectations.

"I think his honeymoon period will be very short," he said.

Without Beijing's co-operation, Mr Ma cannot make headway with his cross-strait plans. And a worsening global economy could make it hard for him to deliver on his economic promises of higher growth and salaries.

But Mr Ma is not so pessimistic.

Only a day after his election, he has suggested that he will be able to make enough progress to win a second four-year term in office.



VIDEO AND AUDIO NEWS
Mr Ma speaks after his decisive win in Taiwan



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