Tough road ahead for Japanese PM

By Chris Hogg
BBC News, Tokyo

Sunday's polls were a devastating defeat for Mr Abe's party

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has insisted he will not quit.

But only once since his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was established in 1955 has it been led to a worse result in elections for the upper house.

Despite the weekend's crushing defeat, Mr Abe remains in office - for now at least - although his power is much diminished.

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is now the biggest party in the upper house - and that matters.

If the DPJ secures the post of president of the upper house, the chamber's presiding officer, it will be able to drive the legislative agenda there, and kill off any contentious bills it does not like the look of.

The prime minister's coalition still controls more than two thirds of the seats in the lower house which means he can override any upper house veto.

But forcing through any piece of legislation in the face of strong opposition from the upper house carries considerable political risk, not least because it will focus attention on contentious legislation that may alienate voters.

Tough challenges

If all this sounds rather dry and procedural, consider some of the issues that will be affected by the shifting of the political tectonic plates as a result of this poll.

To find the public can express its displeasure in historical proportions in this manner should lead the LDP to a reassessment of its policies David Sattherwhite, Fulbright Commission, Japan

Mr Abe has to renew the mandate for a mission by the country's self-defence forces (Japan's military) in the Indian Ocean, where troops are supporting US anti-terrorism efforts. The mandate expires in November, and the DPJ opposes its renewal.

It could cause Mr Abe real embarrassment if he cannot deliver the support he has promised to Japan's closest allies, the Americans.

Mr Abe had also promised discussions on tax reform this autumn, including the possibility that consumption tax might be raised by 5%. A bill to raise taxes is unlikely to win opposition support.

Voters started to question Mr Abe's skills after a series of scandals

That could make life more difficult as he attempts to tame the country's swelling public debt.

Opposing every bill proposed by the ruling coalition would, of course, be a risky strategy for the DPJ.

But there will be many within its ranks who are tempted to flex their newfound political muscle.

And do not forget that, for the prime minister, it will be both damaging and demoralising to have to negotiate with his opponents if he wants to pursue his agenda.

The path ahead

How then should Mr Abe behave in this new environment?

David Sattherwhite, the executive director of the Fulbright Commission in Japan, says he suspects the LDP thought it could bulldoze its way through any objections to its policies, because it had such a large majority in the lower house - and also because Mr Abe enjoyed such high personal popularity ratings when he became the country's leader ten months ago.

"To find the public can express its displeasure in historical proportions in this manner should lead the LDP to a reassessment of its policies," he says.

He points out, though, that the administration has an agenda it would like to pursue, and while it enjoys such strong support in the lower house, it has the opportunity to pass the kind of legislation that a Japanese government has never passed before.

Mr Sattherwhite is talking about policies such as the controversial revision of Japan's pacifist constitution, and Mr Abe's efforts to instil greater patriotism in the country's youth through the school system.

The LDP may be tempted to carry on trying to get that legislation through, while it has the chance, he says.

Mr Abe wants to push through changes to the pacifist constitution

Professor Koichi Nakano, from Sofia University in Tokyo, says Mr Abe is unlikely to be forced out of office in the short term, at least by members of his own party.

But he points out that elections for the lower house will have to be held by 2009 at the latest.

The LDP landslide of 2005 swelled the party's ranks with young, relatively inexperienced MPs who will feel their seats are extremely vulnerable if their party and its leader are so unpopular.

"Will they want to fight that election under a leader like Abe?" Prof Koichi Nakano questioned.

"He cannot operate on his own, he needs to find people to work with him, but that might become harder and harder."

Professor Phil Deans, from Temple University in Tokyo, thinks the LDP needs to abandon Mr Abe's rhetoric about the need to build a "beautiful country", and return focus on its strengths.

"They've got to get away from their nationalist agenda," he says, "and talk to the voters about the economy, job creation and support for rural areas."

He points out that it is easy to write off the LDP as a spent force, that has been done several times before, but somehow the party always manages to get back on top.