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 Jill McGivering reports for BBC News"Fears of invasion are back on the agenda"  real 28k  |
Taiwan votes as China watches
Fear of Beijing's wrath might return the Nationalist Party to power
Voting is under way in Taiwan's fiercely-fought presidential election - which China has sought to influence with threats of military action.
The three main candidates are thought to have equal support, but it is uncertain how Chinese pressure will affect the vote.
The three main candidates are thought to have equal support, but it is uncertain how Chinese pressure will affect the vote.
This is the most important time for the democratic movement  |
Chen Shui-bian
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The race to succeed incumbent Lee Teng-hui could see the Nationalist Party lose the presidency for the first time since Taiwan separated from mainland China in 1949.
Although there is no clear favourite, the BBC's correspondent in Taipei, Jill McGivering, says Chen Shui-bian, the young and dynamic leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, has drawn huge crowds in recent days.
The leadership in Beijing has warned the people of Taiwan not to support Mr Chen, whose party favours independence.
It has threatened to launch a military attack on the island if he wins, possibly within hours of victory.
The US Defence Secretary, William Cohen - who is visiting the Far East - said he welcomed the absence of Chinese threats on polling day.
However, a Hong Kong newspaper reported on Saturday that China had scrambled fighter jets and raised troop movements shortly before polls opened.
The Ta Kung Bao said fighter jets were heard flying over Fuzhou in the southeast Chinese province of Fujian, while a column of tanks and some 60 military transport trucks were seen around the city.
'New future'
After voting at a Taipei elementary school, Mr Chen told reporters that if he won he would immediately pursue talks with Chinese leaders.
"Permanent peace in the Taiwan Strait is going to be our biggest goal," he said.
The Nationalist's candidate, Vice-President Lien Chan, told reporters at a Taipei poll booth that he was confident of a win.
"The weather is very good. The election turnout should be great," he said.
The candidates, dashing from city to city trying to drum up last minute support, wrapped up their campaigns late on Friday night to the sound of horns, fireworks and hundreds of thousands of cheering supporters.
Although there is no clear favourite, the BBC's correspondent in Taipei, Jill McGivering, says Chen Shui-bian, the young and dynamic leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, has drawn huge crowds in recent days.
The leadership in Beijing has warned the people of Taiwan not to support Mr Chen, whose party favours independence.
It has threatened to launch a military attack on the island if he wins, possibly within hours of victory.
The US Defence Secretary, William Cohen - who is visiting the Far East - said he welcomed the absence of Chinese threats on polling day.
However, a Hong Kong newspaper reported on Saturday that China had scrambled fighter jets and raised troop movements shortly before polls opened.
The Ta Kung Bao said fighter jets were heard flying over Fuzhou in the southeast Chinese province of Fujian, while a column of tanks and some 60 military transport trucks were seen around the city.
'New future'
After voting at a Taipei elementary school, Mr Chen told reporters that if he won he would immediately pursue talks with Chinese leaders.
"Permanent peace in the Taiwan Strait is going to be our biggest goal," he said.
The Nationalist's candidate, Vice-President Lien Chan, told reporters at a Taipei poll booth that he was confident of a win.
"The weather is very good. The election turnout should be great," he said.
The candidates, dashing from city to city trying to drum up last minute support, wrapped up their campaigns late on Friday night to the sound of horns, fireworks and hundreds of thousands of cheering supporters.
You are not just choosing a president, you are choosing your future |
Lien Chan
|
"Taiwan will choose a new future," Mr Chen told about 400,000 supporters in his closing speech.
He promised to "protect peace in the Taiwan Strait and protect sovereignty", and said he would not participate in his party's activities if elected - an attempt to distance himself from his party's pro-independence stance.
Mr Lien warned voters that "voting for Chen will bring chaos".
"You can't depend on him - he's too dangerous," he told a crowd of about 80,000 voters.
The Nationalist Party has become less popular with the younger generation, which accuses it of being corrupt and out-of-touch.
Support for the party has also been split since the defection of former member James Soong, who is now running as an independent.
He has presented himself as the candidate best suited to break the ice with China, although none of the candidates accepts the mainland's proposals for reunification.
Petition
The outcome of the election has become an obsession for China, with newspapers reporting a petition signed by 90 million schoolchildren demanding reunification.
He promised to "protect peace in the Taiwan Strait and protect sovereignty", and said he would not participate in his party's activities if elected - an attempt to distance himself from his party's pro-independence stance.
Mr Lien warned voters that "voting for Chen will bring chaos".
"You can't depend on him - he's too dangerous," he told a crowd of about 80,000 voters.
 Chen: Possibly the first opposition leader to take the presidency
|
Support for the party has also been split since the defection of former member James Soong, who is now running as an independent.
He has presented himself as the candidate best suited to break the ice with China, although none of the candidates accepts the mainland's proposals for reunification.
Petition
The outcome of the election has become an obsession for China, with newspapers reporting a petition signed by 90 million schoolchildren demanding reunification.
We seek peace and eased tension |
James Soong
|
In the run up to the poll, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji warned that the Chinese were ready to "shed blood" to stop the island splitting away.
A recent newspaper poll in China showed a 95% backing for war from the Chinese people if Taiwan tried to break away.
While China has not resorted to the missile tests and military exercises it used to intimidate Taiwan's voters four years ago, Taiwan's armed forces are on heightened alert for the elections.
Status Quo
The election is considered by many to be a crucial test of the island's growing democratic maturity.
Dr Tim Ting, an analyst with Gallup Taiwan, says most people want to maintain the status quo.
However, when it comes to dealing with the mainland, he says: "If those people say Taiwan needs a new direction, for politics it means Taiwan should move towards independence.
"I would say that move will lead Taiwan towards confrontation with China in the year 2001," he warned.
Economists have warned that the Taiwan market faces a volatile period if the Nationalist Party is voted out after 50 years, predicting that a Chen victory could spark a capital outflow and confidence crisis.
A recent newspaper poll in China showed a 95% backing for war from the Chinese people if Taiwan tried to break away.
While China has not resorted to the missile tests and military exercises it used to intimidate Taiwan's voters four years ago, Taiwan's armed forces are on heightened alert for the elections.
Status Quo
The election is considered by many to be a crucial test of the island's growing democratic maturity.
 James Soong has split the Nationalist vote
|
However, when it comes to dealing with the mainland, he says: "If those people say Taiwan needs a new direction, for politics it means Taiwan should move towards independence.
"I would say that move will lead Taiwan towards confrontation with China in the year 2001," he warned.
Economists have warned that the Taiwan market faces a volatile period if the Nationalist Party is voted out after 50 years, predicting that a Chen victory could spark a capital outflow and confidence crisis.
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