Abductees cloud Japan-NK talks

By Penny Spiller
BBC News

The two days of talks are being held in Vietnam's capital, Hanoi

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came to political prominence with his tough talk on North Korea's abduction of a number of his country's citizens.

His determination to resolve the issue helped him win last September's election, and has become central to his nationalist appeal.

Now Mr Abe's resolve is set to be tested when Japan holds its first bilateral talks with North Korea for more than a year in Vietnam on Wednesday.

Although the meeting is the result of a multi-national agreement reached last month on ending North Korea's nuclear programme, the question of the abductees is where the Japanese public wants answers.

North Korea has admitted kidnapping 13 Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 80s to train as spies - but only five were ever returned.

Many Japanese people have always doubted Pyongyang's claims that the remaining eight are dead because no conclusive proof has ever been produced.

Japan is in danger of being isolated diplomatically Dr John Swenson-Wright

The issue is an emotive one in Japan. Mr Abe has described the abductions as a grave infringement of basic human rights.

However, some analysts believe the abductee issue is clouding for Japan the real cause for concern - that of regional security and the denuclearisation of North Korea.

"Yes, the kidnappings were terrible but it is clear where the security threat lies," Robert Templer, Asia Programme Director of the International Crisis Group (ICG), said.

South Korea, he points out, had many more of its citizens abducted by the North but has made it less of an issue.

Sanctions threat

Satoru Miyamoto, of the Japan Institute of International Affairs in Tokyo, said the question of abductees would be at the heart of Wednesday's talks.

"Unless we solve this problem, the conflict between North Korea and Japan won't go away," he said.

"Japan will absolutely not give aid to North Korea" unless the issue is resolved, he added.

JAPAN'S MISSING Snatched in the 70s and 80s Used as cultural trainers for N Korean spies Five allowed home in 2002 Five children now freed from N Korea Eight said to be dead, others missing Heartbreak over Japan's missing

And Yoichi Shimada, vice-chairman of the National Association for the Rescue of Japanese kidnapped from North Korea (NARKN), said the government must wield the threat of further sanctions if North Korea fails to give ground on the issue.

"In our view, North Korea has been telling lies about what happened to the Japanese abductees," he said.

"I want the Japanese government to insist that North Korea makes clear the whereabouts of the remaining abductees, and if North Korea refuses to take some positive measures Japan should make it clear it will raise the level of sanctions."

But producing evidence of the missing abductees could be tricky, Robert Templer of the ICG says.

"North Korea may not be able to resolve this. It may not actually know what happened to the abductees," he said.

"It's almost certain that some people were taken in illicit operations, but that may not have been revealed to those higher up in the system."

Isolation danger

While Japan has greater regional security and a resolution to the abduction issue to gain from normalised ties, impoverished North Korea can expect a huge influx of cash.

Analysts believe Pyongyang could be line for billions of dollars in reparations for Japan's colonial rule in North Korea, in a deal similar to that agreed with South Korea in the 1960s.

Shinzo Abe has some tough negotiations with North Korea ahead

But such aid may not be critical in the short term for the North, particularly as it would require concessions Pyongyang may not yet be willing to make, Dr John Swenson-Wright, a lecturer in Japanese politics and an Associate Fellow at Chatham House, said.

And he believes the North is going to the talks in Hanoi knowing its hand has been considerably strengthened diplomatically since its 13 February nuclear agreement.

"If the US takes North Korea off its terror list, it will be giving a massive concession on the abduction issue, because the abductions were seen as proof of state intervention," Dr Swenson-Wright said.

The removal of North Korea from the list would also allow much more aid, from organisations such as the World Bank, to be sent to the country, further weakening Japan's bargaining position.

"Japan is in danger of being isolated diplomatically," Dr Swenson-Wright added.

'Modest concessions'

Robert Templer believes Japan must make clear what it wants from North Korea, particularly on the question of abductions.

"The problem is we don't know what will satisfy the Japanese on the issue. Japan needs to set out some benchmarks saying exactly what it requires to be done," he said.

Shinzo Abe faces upper house elections this summer and any weakness on the issue of the abductees could see him penalised at the polls.

But he also has a proven track record for delivering strategies for political successes, Dr Swenson-Wright points out.

"I suspect only modest concessions will come out of these talks, but it is very significant that the two sides are sitting down at all," he said.

"If both sides are genuinely looking for a practical resolution to their differences, then they will be looking for some mechanism to provide a face-saving solution."