Rice to tread tricky line in Asia

By Jonathan Beale
BBC News State Department correspondent

As Condoleezza Rice makes her way to Tokyo, Seoul and Beijing to press for UN sanctions to be fully implemented against North Korea, the question everyone seems to be asking is: "Will he do it again?"

Ms Rice needs to push hard, but not too hard

Kim Jong-il, North Korea's leader, has already carried out his threat to conduct a nuclear weapons test.

Will he see the US secretary of state's arrival in the region as an opportunity to thumb his nose and do it yet again?

The White House certainly thinks it is a possibility and on Monday night noted that US intelligence officials had seen "unusual activity" at a test site near where the nuclear explosion took place last week.

Still defiant

Far from cowering into a corner after near-worldwide condemnation for its actions, Pyongyang is still sounding as defiant as ever.

The North Korean regime has called the imposition of UN sanctions "a declaration of war".

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It sees Condoleezza Rice's visit to the region as yet another hostile act.

Meanwhile, North Korea's nearest neighbours, China and South Korea, are showing signs of increasing nervousness.

They have the most to lose.

North Korea's huge conventional arsenal is aimed at the South. China worries that the collapse of the country could result in a flood of thousands of refugees.

Enter Condoleezza Rice. She wants North Korea to "pay the price" for its actions. She wants sanctions to hurt the regime.

The US has made no secret of the fact that it would have liked a much tougher UN resolution.

But Ms Rice realises that if she presses too hard that could weaken the coalition that she needs in order to implement any embargo.

China does not want to further provoke its old Communist ally by "intercepting" or "interdicting" cargo going to and from North Korea.

Instead it is willing to carry out inspections.

Ms Rice insists that China will live up to its "obligations", but she will have to convince Beijing that it's really in its own interest to conduct rigorous inspection on China's 1,290-km (800-mile) border with North Korea.

Limited options

Enforcing sanctions is the only real option that America has.

While Ms Rice will reassure Japan and South Korea that the US is prepared to meet its security and defence commitments in the region, military action remains very unattractive.

Some hawks still argue for regime change - but after Iraq that is really a non-starter.

There is the other option of sitting down with Pyongyang in direct negotiations.

It is gaining momentum, but the Bush administration is adamant that the way forward is the so-called "six-party talks" .

But the rhetoric coming out of North Korea does not give the impression that it's looking for a way out - at least not yet.

Raising the stakes

The US secretary of state has raised the stakes, though.

She says that Iran too should take note.

Before she left for Asia, Ms Rice said that Iran "can now see that the international community will respond to threats from nuclear proliferation".

But for Iran to feel the chill winds of isolation, she will first have to prove that the North Korean sanctions will work.

If the resolve of China or South Korea cracks, then it's not just North Korea that will take advantage.

If sanctions fail, Iran will only be emboldened.