US pursuing targeted sanctions

By Jonathan Beale
BBC State Department correspondent

The claim of a test drew sharp rebukes from around the world

The White House has been encouraged by the universal condemnation of North Korea's nuclear test. The question now is - can it turn those words into action?

President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have been hitting the phones to persuade other members of the Security Council to back a new UN resolution that would impose further targeted sanctions against Pyongyang.

The scope of those sanctions have still to be decided. But - as UK Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett noted - the Security Council has already imposed limited sanctions on North Korea after it test-fired long range missiles in July.

Those sanctions focused on preventing the transfer of missile technology to the Communist regime. So the next step will have to go further.

Wake-up call

The reaction of China - and to a lesser extent Russia - will be key to getting any meaningful action.

Washington has long believed that China could be exerting more pressure on its neighbour

There are still questions about whether Beijing is prepared to impose punitive measures on its Communist ally.

Even though China condemned Pyongyang's actions as "brazen", it also emphasised the need for a peaceful response, saying: "The Chinese government calls on all sides to deal with this issue calmly and seek consultations to peacefully resolve the issue."

Washington has long believed that China could be exerting more pressure on its neighbour. The Bush administration hopes that the nuclear test will be a "wake up call" for Beijing.

Risk of collapse

The US has already set out its shopping list for sanctions. It wants a resolution under Chapter Seven of the UN Charter.

It is more than a year since North Korea walked away from international talks

Proposed measures would make it tougher for North Korea to produce and export nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.

The United States also wants to impose further financial sanctions to prevent Pyongyang engaging in counterfeiting and money-laundering activities.

Sanctions would be aimed at punishing the North Korean regime, rather than its people. Therefore it is unlikely that food and fuel supplies would be affected.

President Bush wants to isolate Kim Jong-il from his people as well as from the rest of the world. South Korea and China do not want a situation whereby the country collapses.

That could mean a flood of refugees into their country.

Attempts to isolate North Korea through limited sanctions though have so far proved futile.

It is more than a year since North Korea walked away from the international talks aimed at persuading it to give up its nuclear programme.

The tightening of the screws so far only seem to have made Pyongyang more defiant.

So will yet more sanctions be met by a more extreme response from Kim Jong-il - such as more nuclear tests and the speeding up of its weapons programme?

Kim Jong-il does not appear to respond positively when pushed into a corner.

Targeted strikes

The actions of North Korea will no doubt step up the pressure on President Bush to consider a military option.

N KOREA NUCLEAR PROGRAMME Believed to have 'handful' of nuclear weapons But not thought to have any small enough to put in a missile Could try dropping from plane, though world watching closely N Korea's mercurial leader Reaction to nuclear test Send us your comments

Some former US diplomats have already urged him to carry out specific strikes on North Korea's missile sites - following the test launches carried out July.

But any military response would lead to further instability in an already tense region and potentially divide nations in the region.

So there is no real sense that the US is actively considering a military response.

Remember, North Korea has not yet developed the technology to deliver a nuclear warhead, so the US still believes that there is some time to play with.

Meanwhile there will be those on the other side of the argument who are calling on the United States to sit down with North Korea and engage in direct talks.

Many analysts believe that is what North Korea wants, along with the US lifting financial sanctions it has already imposed.

But Washington is reluctant to be seen rewarding North Korea's "bad behaviour".

What message, for example, would that send out to Iran who the US also refuses to deal with directly.

The Bush administration still insists that to resolve this issue Pyongyang must return to the stalled six-party talks.

So for the time being, the White House and State Department hope that the world will unite around targeted sanctions, and that North Korea's enigmatic leader will "come to his senses".

But Kim Jong-il is a leader who can never be defied by logic and who will always be impossible to second-guess.