N Korea's diplomatic dance in new phase

By Charles Scanlon
BBC News, Seoul

At the beginning of June, North Korea invited the chief US negotiator, Christopher Hill, to Pyongyang to discuss their differences.

But it warned ominously of "ultra-hardline" measures if the United States continued its "hostile policy".

The Bush administration brushed aside the offer - and the salvo of missiles that landed in the Sea of Japan on Wednesday appears to have been the response.

Many South Koreans have become blase about North Korea's threat

Timing the launch to coincide with Independence Day celebrations in Washington rammed home the point - North Korea wants the attention of the US and will do what it takes to force direct talks.

The Bush administration says it will only negotiate as part of the six-party process - stalled nuclear negotiations that the North sees as a device to exert regional pressure.

North Korea's foreign ministry is now warning of "stronger actions of other forms" if other countries pressurise it over the missile tests.

The vaguely worded threat will be taken seriously - the region has been rattled by fears in recent years that the regime could test a nuclear weapon.

The North is believed to have enough plutonium for at least eight bombs - but it has yet to prove it can make a weapon.

"The number one objective of the regime is survival, not suicide - they're not building missiles to attack the US," says Donald Gregg, a former US ambassador in Seoul, the South Korean capital.

"They enjoy seeing us run around with our hair on fire, but we should not overreact."

Long hot summer

That advice is not needed by the citizens of Seoul - nine million people who live within range of massed North Korean artillery.

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Many have become blase about the threat.

"This kind of situation has happened so many times before, so I'm not worried, but I will be concerned if it affects the economy," said office worker Eom Yoon-mi.

But that equanimity could be tested if North Korea keeps up its war of nerves. Some analysts are predicting a long hot summer of crisis.

North Korea is thought to have hundreds of ballistic missiles - most of them well-tested Scuds and mid-range Nodong missiles.

Some could target Japan and are the key to North Korea's strategic power.

It may also want to test another long-range Taepodong 2 missile following the apparent failure of the one tested on Wednesday. It exploded just a few hundred kilometres into its trajectory.

Hoping for replay

North Korea has found it gets taken more seriously when it shows the ability to menace the region - home to the world's most dynamic economies.

It last challenged US authority at the beginning of 2003 by firing up its nuclear programme and reprocessing weapons-grade plutonium.

The Bush administration at first refused to talk and promised there would be "no rewards for bad behaviour".

But within months, the US was back at the table and prepared to sign off on security guarantees and economic aid in return for North Korean concessions.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il will be hoping for a replay over his missiles.

Stalled talks

State television waited more than 24 hours before announcing the missile tests to the population.

NORTH KOREAN MISSILE MOVES 1998: Tests long-range Taepodong-1 over Japan 1999: Agrees to moratorium on long-range tests 2003: Six-nation talks begin on N Korea's nuclear programme 2005: Six-nation talks stall July 2006: N Korea launches seven missiles, including long-range Taepodong-2, which fails N Korea's missile programme

"The latest successful missile launches were part of the routine military exercises staged by the Korean People's Army to increase the nation's military capacity for self-defence," said the announcer on state television.

North Korea says it made a concession by agreeing to a moratorium on missile tests in 1999. It now says it is back to business as usual because of the failure of talks with the United States.

The US says North Korea walked away from the table.

The North says the six-party talks are impossible while the United States imposes sanctions. The administration struck at the North Korean banking system last September by targeting an intermediary bank in Macau.

The delicate diplomatic dance between Pyongyang and Washington has now entered a new phase - and that is a cause for concern for the entire region.