Thai PM gambles on surprise poll

By Kate McGeown
BBC News, Bangkok

"Me or Them" ran the headline of Thai newspaper The Nation on Saturday. The choice could not get much starker.

Thaksin hopes to silence his critics by going to the people

After weeks of mounting protests demanding his resignation, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has thrown down the gauntlet at the feet of his opponents by dissolving parliament and setting a snap election for early April.

It may seem a risky move, but the flamboyant Thai leader is widely expected to win because of his huge support among the rural poor.

While his decision to "return power to the people" is partly an indication of the strength of the campaign against him, it is also a sign of how sure he is that he can win.

In the words of Ammar Siamwalla, honorary adviser to the Thailand Development Institute: "The prime minister has opted to dissolve the House because he knows he's coming back."

Some analysts say the anti-Thaksin movement, the People's Alliance for Democracy, has been substantially weakened by Friday's decision, because Mr Thaksin has used its central argument, democracy, against it.

"This is a very astute move. Thaksin said he wanted the dispute to be resolved democratically by the people, and it's very hard to argue against that," said Giles Ungpakorn, a political commentator at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

But the protesters are undeterred, insisting that a snap election does not answer their concerns of corruption and abuse of power.

Mr Thaksin's critics have vowed to continue to hold mass rallies calling for his resignation, including one this Sunday.

"The root cause of problem is Thaksin himself," said Suriyasai Katasila, a spokesman for the movement. "He must quit unconditionally."

Sell-off and sell-out?

The campaign against Mr Thaksin has been growing steadily since last summer, when media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul began openly accusing him of mismanagement and cronyism.

The prime minister's opponents have been rallying against him

Thousands of people from the urban middle classes turned up to Mr Sondhi's mobile talk shows, having lost faith in Mr Thaksin's ability to combat corruption and allow free speech.

Supporters of Mr Sondhi have now been joined by a variety of other groups, including a vocal student movement and some former political allies of Mr Thaksin.

Under the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) banner, they have been holding regular rallies in Bangkok calling for the prime minister's resignation, with some of the demonstrations attracting as many as 50,000 people.

In the past few weeks the anti-Thaksin movement has gathered momentum, with attention focusing on his family's recent $1.9bn sale of the huge telecoms conglomerate Shin Corp.

Critics were furious that the already wealthy Shinawatra family avoided paying tax on the sale.

The best thing is to ask the people Suranand Vejjajiva, Thai Rak Thai spokesman

They also accused Mr Thaksin and his relatives of betraying Thailand's interests by selling to Temasek, a Singaporean company.

This week there has been a series of further blows to the prime minister, with his former mentor Chamlong Srimuang joining the anti-government movement, followed by several members of his own party, Thai Rak Thai.

By Friday the prime minister had had enough.

"Let me return the power to you, so that the public will decide again," he said in a televised address, after asking King Bhumibol for permission to dissolve parliament.

"I will respect the decision of the public, not just one group of people," he said.

Suranand Vejjajiva, a Thai Rak Thai spokesman, explained the decision to call an election just a year after the last poll: "We know there are a lot of questions about the prime minister, and we've tried to answer them, but it seems the opposition and rally organisers feel this is not enough."

"They are still calling for Thaksin to resign, and this is not reasonable because we were elected with a majority," he said. "So the best thing is to ask the people."

'Whitewash'

The ball is now squarely in the anti-Thaksin movement's court - and the prime minister's detractors are showing little sign of altering their stance in the light of Friday's announcement.

Thaksin has strong backing among the rural poor

"Everything is unchanged. We had already expected the house dissolution," Mr Thaksin's former mentor and recent turncoat Chamlong Srimuang is quoted as saying.

"The parliament dissolution is only a trick that allows [Mr Thaksin] to whitewash his problems and return to power," added PAD spokesman Suriyasai Katasila.

Pasuk Pongpaijitr, the co-author of a book called Thaksin: The Business of Politics in Thailand, explained that for the protesters, nothing but the departure of the prime minister would do.

"These people have made the decision that someone else needs to come in and take charge," she said.

"They want a process of constitutional reform to take place, and they know that if Mr Thaksin stays, that won't happen."

But commentator Giles Ungpakorn believes that the PAD now urgently needs to expand its remit from the single demand of getting rid of Mr Thaksin.

"When it comes to an election, this group's choices are very limited," he said, adding that many protesters could well end up supporting the Democrat Party, which in some respects has similar policies and problems to Thai Rak Thai.

He added that if Mr Thaksin won the election, it would be difficult for people to continue calling on him to quit.

Politicians across the spectrum are now preparing for the elections on 2 April, and the campaigning has already begun.

But the first test of the wisdom of Mr Thaksin's actions will come much sooner.

A mass rally is scheduled for Sunday afternoon in Bangkok, and analysts are eagerly watching to see whether the decision to call snap elections has taken the heat off Mr Thaksin or fanned the flames even further.