High stakes for Koizumi's N Korean talks

By Sarah Buckley
BBC News Online

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will return from his trip to North Korea with an unusual prize.

Mr Koizumi's last trip to N Korea was a gamble which ended well

They are the relatives of five Japanese nationals who returned to Japan in October 2002 after Pyongyang admitted kidnapping them during the Cold War.

The return of these five caused a sensation, but their North Korea-born children, aged 16-22, and an American husband, have never been allowed to join them.

Last time Mr Koizumi held talks in North Korea, in September 2002, the rewards were rich: an admission and apology from secretive leader Kim Jong-il that the kidnappings had taken place, and an agreement to extend a moratorium on missile testing, and to comply with international nuclear agreements.

But relations between the two nations since that groundbreaking meeting have been fragile. When Tokyo said it wanted the relatives of the five Japanese to come home, Pyongyang insisted their families collect them - fuelling fears they would never be allowed to leave again.

The five former kidnap victims are in Tokyo for an anxious wait

Talks were further stymied by the US' announcement in October 2002 that North Korea had admitted to a secret enriched uranium programme.

But diplomatic discussions between both sides in the last few weeks raised hopes of a breakthrough.

"The priority issue for us is to secure the return of the eight family members... We are expecting and hoping that that's going to happen," a spokesman for the Japanese Foreign Ministry told BBC News Online before the talks.

Masao Okonogi, a Korean expert at Keio University, Tokyo, said Mr Koizumi would not be going to North Korea unless he knew he would be successful on this front.

"He will successfully bring back the families. Without (the knowledge he will) he cannot go," he said.

JAPAN'S MISSING Snatched in the '70s and '80s Used as cultural trainers for N Korean spies Five allowed home in 2002 Their children still in N Korea Eight said to be dead, others missing Heartbreak over missing

How Mr Koizumi fares carries enormous political weight in Japan, where the emotional issue of the kidnappings have dominated media reports for months.

A popular leader, Mr Koizumi's image nevertheless needs bolstering - his government is presently embroiled in an embarrassing pensions scandal. Parliamentary elections are due in July, and a successful resolution to the abduction crisis could help his party's performance.

For Kim Jong-il, the potential rewards are also considerable. Talks will continue on the "Pyongyang Declaration", signed at the last summit, which promises substantial economic assistance for North Korea, including humanitarian aid, loans and grants.

Kim Jong-il desperately needs this aid. North Korea's economy has been wrecked by decades of centralised planning and a devastating famine in the 1990s.

But this aid will only be forthcoming, Tokyo says, when relations between the two sides are normalised. And that can only happen when several longstanding, bilateral issues are resolved, including North Korea's pursuit of a nuclear weapons programme.

It is a deal which Mr Kim appears to think worth pursuing. But like any deal made with his unpredictable state, it is a risk for Mr Koizumi.

Others missing

Not everybody in Japan is happy about the prime minister's trip.

Yoshitaka Fukui, of the National Association for the Rescue of Japanese Kidnapped by North Korea, said the group believed the impoverished North would have eventually returned the eight family members of its own accord, and Mr Koizumi's visit could prevent further investigations into the cases of others believed missing there.

It could "be received as a final solution for the issue", he said.

Tokyo has insisted it will pursue the stories of another eight Japanese whom North Korea claims have died, and two others believed kidnapped but for whom Pyongyang says it has no record.

CHARLES JENKINS Disappeared during army service in South Korea in 1965 Met and married former Japanese kidnap victim Hitomi Soga in North Korea The US Government says he defected to the North His family in Carolina say he was abducted and should be pardoned

"There are rumours that some of them may still be alive," said the Foreign Ministry spokesman. "As long as there are doubts, the story cannot end."

But Mr Fukui said at least 100 more Japanese are suspected of having being kidnapped by North Korea, including 28 the group believes are "highly likely" to have been abducted.

He said evidence included testimony from agents who defected from North Korea, who said they had seen some of these missing people in North Korea, and the fact that many of the circumstances in which they disappeared were similar to those of the 13 Pyongyang has admitted snatching.

Another complicating issue is the husband of Hitomi Soga, Charles Jenkins. He disappeared while serving in South Korea in 1965, and in 1996 his American family were told by the US Government that he was living in North Korea and had deserted his troops.

His family believe he was abducted, but the US accuses him of trying to dodge the draft to Vietnam. Mr Jenkins fears Japan will be forced to extradite him to Washington for court-martial should he arrive in Tokyo.

Japan has asked Washington to agree to waive any charges. But the US Government has refused to make such assurances.

If Mr Koizumi does manage to secure Mr Jenkins' release on Saturday, assuming he wants to come, he is sure to have some interesting stories to tell when he arrives in Tokyo.