Chen cautious over China change

Chen Shui-bian said Taiwan should not 'harbour any illusions'

Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian has warned his people not to expect a major policy shift from Beijing now Jiang Zemin has quit as China's army chief.

Mr Jiang stepped down on Sunday from his last official post as head of the powerful Central Military Commission.

President Hu Jintao took over the role, consolidating his leadership.

Analysts have suggested that, with Mr Jiang gone, Mr Hu may be able to follow a softer line regarding China's policies on Taiwan and in Hong Kong.

But Mr Chen warned on Monday that the Taiwanese people should not build their hopes up over any major change in Beijing's approach.

"We cannot harbour any illusions, nor can we have unrealistically high expectations," Mr Chen said.

"The security of the country is in our own hands. We cannot wishfully hope for the enemy's goodwill or the aid of external forces."

China views Taiwan as a renegade province, and has threatened to take it by force if it ever declares formal independence.

Jiang Zemin adopted a tough policy toward the island, aiming to keep control by ensuring Taiwan's diplomatic isolation.

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Mr Hu is thought to espouse a less rigid approach, and after Sunday's announcement some cross-strait analysts predicted that Mr Jiang's departure could herald progress in relations between the two sides.

"Jiang had a stronger grip on power, while Hu looks for more opinions before making decisions," said Chiu Tai-san, vice chairman of the Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council.

Andrew Yang, Secretary General of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, added that Beijing's leaders would "be more willing to make approaches" to Taiwan now Mr Jiang was not on the scene.

In Hong Kong too, Mr Jiang's departure was greeted with optimism.

Many people in the territory are keen to retain a high degree of independence from the mainland, and Beijing's decision to rule out direct elections for Hong Kong's next chief executive has angered democracy advocates.

"Hu's coming into power bodes well for Hong Kong," said Paul Harris, a specialist on Chinese politics at Hong Kong's Lingnan University.

"There was no way for Hu Jintao to become pragmatic on the Hong Kong issue while Jiang Zemin was around," Gilles Guiheux, director of the Hong Kong-based French Centre for the Study of Contemporary China, told the French news agency AFP.

Orderly transition

The announcement of Mr Jiang's departure, at the end of high-level Communist Party talks on Sunday, completes China's first orderly leadership transition since the 1949 revolution.

The BBC's Louisa Lim in Beijing says Mr Jiang, 78, and Mr Hu, 61, had been locked in an apparent power struggle.

The leadership transition began in 2002, when Mr Jiang gave up the post of party chief to Mr Hu - who then succeeded him as president in March 2003.

But until Sunday Mr Jiang remained head of China's massive army, retaining a huge influence in areas such as security and foreign policy.

Despite his resignation, Mr Jiang is still expected to wield considerable influence, because China's highest decision-making body remains stacked with his allies.