HK legislative poll points to the future

By Chris Hogg
BBC correspondent in Hong Kong

China has retained the right to choose Tung Chee-hwa's successor

When the British ruled Hong Kong, as pro-Beijing politicians are fond of pointing out, the territory's people had no direct influence over the way they were governed.

These days it is different, but not much.

Hong Kong's leader, Tung Chee-hwa, is selected by an election committee largely handpicked by Beijing.

China has made clear that his successor will be chosen in the same way in three years time.

Mr Tung also appoints his own government to run the place, and voters have no say over his choices.

But some of the seats in the Legislative Council (LegCo) - the territory's mini-parliament - are elected by popular vote.

This year half the 60 seats, more than ever before, are being elected in this way, by voters in the so-called geographical constituencies, who go to the polls on Sunday.

'Elect an opposition'

"Elections in Hong Kong are bizarre, because all the people are called to do is elect an opposition," said Steve Vines, the publisher of Hong Kong magazine Spike.

HONG KONG VOTE All 60 seats in Legislative Council up for grabs Only half are decided by direct elections Other half reserved for business and professional groups Guide to LegCo elections

"Nobody who's going to be elected has any prospect of being in the government, so all people can do is select parties that are either perhaps slightly sympathetic to the government or completely opposed to the government. That's the choice they have," he said.

Whereas the pro-democracy politicians are likely to win the most votes on Sunday, they are highly unlikely to win enough seats to gain a majority in LegCo.

Politicians in the pro-democracy camp often complains that the system is rigged against it. The other half of the seats in LegCo, known as functional constituencies, represent business and professional groups and tend to favour pro-establishment, pro-China politicians.

The form of proportional representation used in the geographical constituencies also boosts the chances of less popular candidates winning a seat.

These are often the pro-government or pro-Beijing parties.

Political analyst Andy Ho says that even though they are unlikely to win control of the LegCo, the pro-democracy candidates want to secure enough votes to declare victory in their campaign for universal suffrage.

The pro-democracy groups are trying to argue that a heavy turnout... would send a clear and unambiguous message to Beijing that the people of Hong Kong are really ready for full democracy Andy Ho, political analyst

"A few months ago Beijing ruled out allowing Hong Kong to introduce so-called full democracy by 2007," Mr Ho said.

In the recent past, Hong Kong's government has been able to explain away the strong showing for the pro-democracy movement - such as the mass marches on 1 July this year and last year - because of Hong Kong's poor economic prospects.

This time it will not be that easy, Mr Ho said, as the economy is doing much better.

If people turn out in force for the democrats, he said, it will be because they want more democracy.

"The pro-democracy groups are trying to argue that a heavy turnout of perhaps 60% would send a clear and unambiguous message to Beijing that the people of Hong Kong are really ready for full democracy even now," he said.

Universal suffrage

But even if people support the pro-democracy message, there is no guarantee they will turn out and vote for it.

Pro-democracy leaders often complain about the electoral system

One of Hong Kong's richest men, Sir Gordon Wu, the chairman of Hopewell Holdings, complains that in the past the calibre of those standing for election was not up to much.

Now, though, he sees some signs of improvement.

"The first bunch we had... were nothing to write home about," Sir Gordon said.

"I think the candidates coming out now are getting better and better. It takes time and it takes experience to get the best players."

But he is opposed to an early introduction of universal suffrage, worried that if democratically-elected politicians run Hong Kong, these "do-gooders" will bankrupt the place, handing out welfare payments and making expensive promises the territory can ill afford.

Of course the reality is that China is not about to let that happen soon anyway.

And as Christine Loh of the think-tank Civic Exchange points out, the way these elections are conducted and what happens afterwards tells us as much about the mainland as it does about Hong Kong.

"They're very important because this is part of the China story," she said.

"When western democracies talk to China about China's own path to democratic reform, very often it's very conceptual. However in this corner of China - Hong Kong - this is where it's really happening," she said.