Analysis: Burma's Karen talk peace

By Larry Jagan BBC Burma analyst

Peace talks between the Burmese Government and the rebel Karen National Union (KNU) are making good progress.

Though no ceasefire agreement was reached in the latest negotiations, the Burmese Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt and the KNU's military leader, General Bo Mya, did agree a peace deal in principle.

The Karen leader's visit to Rangoon was extremely significant.

Analysts say the KNU has been reduced to about 1,000 fighters

He had previously been labelled a bandit and terrorist. Now Khin Nyunt even hosted a birthday party for him.

Rangoon is keen to reach agreement because the KNU is the most significant ethnic rebel group still engaged in armed struggle.

If the KNU entered a peace pact, it would mark a significant publicity victory for the military regime, and the handful of other ethnic rebel groups who are still fighting would be likely to follow suit.

That would virtually bring the country's civil war to an end, and would mean that for the first time since the British left Burma more than 50 years ago, peace prevailed throughout the country.

This aim has been a crucial part of the current military government's claim to legitimacy. It is also a central part of the new Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt's plans for national reconciliation - the regime's way of describing its proposed political reform.

The Karenni (the Karenni National Progressive Party or KNPP) and the Chin (Chin National Front or CNF) are already discussing a truce with Rangoon through intermediaries. A KNPP delegation is due in Rangoon soon for formal talks, according to Burmese military sources.

KNU divisions

The possibility of a ceasefire has been causing division and resentment within the KNU.

There has been intermittent contact with Rangoon for the past 10 years. But in recent months, General Bo Mya seized the initiative. He sent a personal delegation to Rangoon in mid-December to explore a possible ceasefire.

At first this was not well received within the KNU, especially inside its political wing. Even senior Karen military commanders were unhappy, according to reliable sources within the Karen community.

But in the last few weeks the Karen have united behind the initiative and agreed a strategy for continued talks.

The priorities are clearly: Negotiating a ceasefire agreement; setting up a process of monitoring infringements of the truce; and deciding how to deal with internally displaced people in Karen state - more than 250,000 people, according to aid workers along the Thai-Burma border.

Pressure from the Thai authorities in the past year has made it increasingly difficult for the KNU to operate along the border.

Officially the Thai Government says it is not official policy to harass the KNU or Karen refugees, but privately, local Thai authorities have told KNU leaders that they had no option but to negotiate a ceasefire agreement.

But it may be personal factors that finally tipped the balance with the Karen leaders.

Time ticking

Many of the KNU's leaders, especially General Bo Mya and political leader Saw Ba Tin, are getting on in years and are physically frail.

Sources within the KNU said General Bo Mya was in very bad heath and was keen to see some kind of solution to the Karen's battle for self-determination and autonomy.

It took some time for all of the KNU to support the peace talks

Furthermore, the KNU is a far cry from the force it once was.

In 1949 the Karen army were on the outskirts of Rangoon and almost succeeded in capturing the Burmese capital.

Now, although the KNU's jungle campaign remains a headache for the Burmese army, the group is a spent force militarily.

And if the Karen are to play any role in the country's political future, they need to join the 'legal fold' - the Burmese government's euphemism for agreeing to a ceasefire arrangement.

The Burmese government has already informally invited the KNU to participate in the National Convention which is being reconvened later this year to draw up a new constitution for the country - the first step in the Prime Minister's recently announce seven-stage road map to democracy.

"The KNU will only decide on that after a formal agreement on a ceasefire," a senior Karen leader who was part of the delegation which visited Rangoon told the BBC.