China's trade surplus set to halve

By Francis Markus BBC correspondent in Shanghai

The Chinese premier faces tough trade talks

China has forecast that its trade surplus with the rest of the world will be halved this year to about $15bn.

Analysts say it is significant because imports are growing faster than exports and China may well move to running a trade deficit.

But all this may not be of much help to China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, as he faces a rough ride over trade issues on a visit to Washington next week.

China is becoming wearily used to being seen as a country pumping out cheap goods which flood the world's markets and mop up growing numbers of jobs.

But actually the figures for China's trade surplus with the rest of the world tell a somewhat different story.

Shrinking surplus

A senior commerce ministry official has forecast that this year's trade would be only $15bn in the black, that's only about half of last year's surplus.

There's no sign yet that Beijing's huge surplus with the United States is about to shrink.

Intense political pressure in the run-up to next year's Presidential elections has already sparked trade rows over Chinese textiles and televisions.

China would like the US to allow it to import more high technology, but that is still blocked by a fundamental lack of political and military confidence.

Meanwhile, growing tension over Taiwan which is likely to figure high on Mr Wen's agenda, isn't going to do much to help either.