Poll spells trouble for HK's Tung

By Chris Hogg BBC correspondent in Hong Kong

District councils in Hong Kong are not really that important, and they are definitely not powerful. Their role is mainly advisory, working with the government on issues like waste disposal and sanitation.

But this year's council elections have been watched closely, because they offered analysts the first chance to see how anti-government protests during the summer would influence people's voting intentions.

Voters have used the local polls to signal their discontent with Mr Tung

Half a million people took to the streets on 1 July to protest against Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's plans to introduce controversial new security laws.

Mr Tung was subsequently forced to withdraw them, partly as a result of pressure from the pro-Beijing local politicians who had supported him for weeks in the face of attacks from their opponents.

They warned him the row would damage their electoral prospects.

It seems they were right.

The Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, better known as the DAB, is broadly supportive of the Tung administration and its political masters in the Chinese capital.

But in a system where the territory's chief executive and his cabinet, the Executive Council, are appointed and not elected, there is not much voters can do to register their discontent.

The DAB's support of the ruling administration makes them a target for voters who want to punish Mr Tung.

Pro-democracy campaigners attempted to turn this poll into a referendum on Mr Tung's performance and it seems they succeeded

The party's leader, Tsang Yok-sing, acknowledges the problem his party faces.

Its core voters expect the party to show support for Mr Tung and respect the wishes of Beijing.

But when Hong Kong's government is deeply unpopular it is the DAB that takes a hit.

Pro-democracy campaigners attempted to turn this poll into a referendum on Mr Tung's performance, and it seems they succeeded.

Just as in July, when the march was swelled by thousands of protesters who took to the streets for the very first time, Sunday's record turnout suggests people who had not bothered to vote in this kind of poll before were moved to take part.

But why does it matter if the pro-Beijing faction is given a bloody nose by voters?

In September 2004, far more significant elections are due to take place.

Hong Kong's leader no doubt has his fingers crossed. If not there will be even tougher times ahead for Mr Tung

For the first time, half the seats in the territory's Legislative Council (Legco) will be directly elected by voters.

The strong showing for the pro-democracy candidates, if replicated in that poll, could prove disastrous for Mr Tung.

Whereas it seems unlikely they would gain a working majority in Legco, if they were to win more than three quarters of the seats they contested, as in this election, they could prove extremely disruptive.

All it would take is for one or two indirectly elected lawmakers from the functional constituencies - who represent professions like doctors or lawyers, for example - to join the Democrats on a single issue for them to be able to defeat a government bill or disrupt a budget.

That would put Mr Tung under the kind of pressure he has yet to feel from Legco.

Hard work needed

It is not clear whether this Sunday's vote will be replicated in next year's poll.

The pro-democracy movement is working hard to consolidate the support it received on the streets in the summer, organising letter writing campaigns, holding public meetings, planning another big rally for 1 January, and generally trying to politicise people who have perhaps never really thought about politics until recently.

That process will have received a boost from this weekend's results.

For the DAB, the Tung administration, and Beijing, a much harder task lies ahead.

They need to shore up electoral support for Hong Kong's pro-Beijing politicians if they are to retain control of the legislative council.

But if the problem is Mr Tung's unpopularity, any move by the DAB to try to make itself appear less of an ally to the chief executive risks alienating its traditional voters.

The only answer would appear to be to try and improve his ratings. The Chinese leadership has so far attempted a two-pronged approach - moves to ease the economic pressures on Hong Kong which have added to his unpopularity, and exhortations to show support for his administration in the national interest.

This weekend's poll results suggest it has not worked so far, despite signs that Hong Kong's economic situation is starting to improve.

But will that continue? And will it be enough to enable the DAB to turn the tables on the Democrats next September?

Hong Kong's leader no doubt has his fingers crossed. If not there will be even tougher times ahead for Mr Tung.