Analysis: Fighting talk in Japan

Japan provided support to the US in Afghanistan

By Charles Scanlon BBC Tokyo correspondent

Japan is pushing for a diplomatic solution to the confrontation over North Korea's nuclear weapons programme, but behind the scenes there is talk of a more forceful approach if negotiations fail.

Japan has long felt intimidated by its hostile neighbour and it is desperate to prevent North Korea acquiring nuclear weapons.

Peace activists say Mr Koizumi is too nationalist

But any move to strengthen the military would be met by vocal opposition, as was shown this week when Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi visited a controversial war shrine, where war criminals are honoured alongside the country's war dead.

Protesters have been shouting their indignation outside the prime minister's residence.

Mr Koizumi says he went to Yasukuni shrine to pray for peace, but for peace activists his visit was a hallmark of the most nationalistic Japanese Government in decades.

We have to show North Korea our determination to take, at the last resort, a military option

Shunji Yanai, former Japanese ambassador

"They're preparing a new bill to strengthen the armed forces," said one male protester. "It's all about increasing readiness for war.

"And there's talk about acquiring nuclear weapons. The Yasukuni visit is part of the same process."

Another man said: "The truth is being hidden as usual - we don't know what they're really planning.

"But we've learned from history that the route to war is always paved with deception."

Taboo subject

Whatever the government's intentions, the cause of its concern is plain enough. North Korea has long been a potent security threat and the prospect of it building a nuclear arsenal is causing real alarm.

Shunji Yanai, until recently Japan's ambassador to Washington, has said force may be required if negotiations fail.

"We have to show North Korea our determination to take, at the last resort, a military option," he said. "In order to deal with a dictator like Kim Jong-il, we must have strong deterrence, military deterrence, against him."

We need to be able to threaten mutually assured destruction

Shingo Nishimura, MP

For a country that is not supposed to have an army, Japan's self-defence forces - as they are known - can pack a significant punch. Its armoured units were on display at a recent exercise near Mount Fuji.

The government is planning to lift some of the legal restrictions imposed on the military under the pacifist constitution. It is also working on missile defence with the United States and is putting up satellites to increase surveillance of North Korea.

Now there is pressure for it to go even further.

"The balance of power in the region is being lost and that's a threat to peace," said Liberal Party MP Shingo Nishimura, a former vice-defence minister in the coalition government.

"We have to regain the balance as North Korea builds up its nuclear weapons capability.

"We need to be able to threaten mutually assured destruction - to say to North Korea 'your cities will be destroyed if you push the button'."

Mr Nishimura wants to permit the US to bring nuclear missiles onto Japanese soil. As the only country to have suffered atomic war, Japan has always followed a resolutely non-nuclear policy. Few politicians even dare raise the subject.

But Shunji Yanai, who helped direct North Korea policy for a decade, said all bets would be off if the North Koreans tested a nuclear weapon.

"We are strongly committed to a non-nuclear policy in this country for historical reasons and also strategic reasons too," he said. "But if North Korea has gained nuclear weapons and improved its vehicles of delivery, then it might have a very strong impact on Japanese public opinion."

North Korea's test flight of a ballistic missile over Japan five years ago came as a severe shock to the Japanese public, and the country's sense of vulnerability is more acute than ever.

At the moment all hopes are pinned on a negotiated solution. But Japan's military establishment has been awakened.

If North Korea's ambitions cannot be contained, then the entire strategic picture in north-east Asia would be transformed.