Clashes threaten Thai-Burmese ties

The fighting has forced 1,500 Thai villagers to flee

By the BBC's Jonathan Head In Bangkok

It all started with what the Thai army described as a routine training exercise along the border with Burma, but within days it had turned into one of the worst rows between the two countries.

The Thai military is trying to stem the flow of drugs from Burma

The tension over the past few weeks has seen soldiers on either side of the border firing shells at each other.

Military exercises in this part of Thailand are not unusual, but they do heighten sensitivities between the two countries.

The Thai military's main target here is the massive flow of illegal drugs coming from Burma. A small, anti-narcotics detachment of US troops has been helping train the Thais.

On the other side of the border, an army from the ethnic Wa minority, which has moved down into the area in the past decade from the border with China, now produces much of the world's opium and highly addictive methamphetamine pills.

Delicate balancing act

Despite denials from the military regime in Rangoon, its armed forces have close ties to the Wa, after making peace with them several years ago and using them to drive out rebels from the Shan minority.

And, despite denials from the Thai military, it in turn gives support to the Shan rebels, who maintain several bases on hilltops along the border, as well as allegedly keeping some of the Thai army's own, murky business interests there.

The Burmese flag is flying in the capital's streets in support of the military

Normally this allows both governments to maintain cordial relations, while their armies avoid confrontation by using their surrogates.

The Wa suppress rebel activity in the Shan States of Burma and provide vital funds from selling drugs, and the Shan Army is allowed to keep its supply lines in Thailand open, so long as it keeps up its attacks on Wa drug-manufacturing facilities inside Burma.

Raid suspected

This time, though, the Burmese Government believed the Thai army was planning more than a routine exercise - a raid across the border to seize Wei Hsueh-Kang, a notorious Wa commander and drug baron, who has a $2m reward posted by the US for information leading to his capture.

Burma protested.

As a result thousands of Thai troops were ordered by their government to withdraw from the border.

But in the days that followed several armed clashes took place, and the Burmese Government took a series of retaliatory steps - closing the border, banning Thai advertisements in Burmese newspapers, and expelling some Thai workers.

Echoing the centuries-old rivalry between the two neighbours, the state-run media began referring to Thailand as Ayodhya, the 18th century Siamese kingdom defeated by Burmese forces.

The situation was made worse when Shan rebels took over seven small bases from the Burmese army. Fighting has continued well into June.

Different agendas

The clashes are unlikely to erupt into open warfare, but they have exposed a deep rift between the government and the military in Thailand over how to deal with Burma.

For Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, improving ties with Rangoon is a top priority.

Last year he made a high-profile visit to Rangoon, and called for a new, business-based relationship between the two countries.

His coalition partner and Defence Minister, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, is a long-standing personal friend of some of Burma's military rulers and his family have extensive business interests there.

Lucrative markets

Mr Thaksin's own telecommunications business also has investments in Burma, and hopes to profit from the modernisation of Burma's antiquated infrastructure.

This has led many Thais to question his government's motives in pursuing a more conciliatory approach.

The prime minister has been accused by some commentators of being too soft on Rangoon.

Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra has taken a conciliatory approach

After Mr Thaksin warned his forces not to over-react, he was rebuked by several newspapers and some senior political figures.

A respected former Prime Minister, Prem Tinsulanonda, summoned Mr Thaksin to express his displeasure.

The armed forces commander stated pointedly that the military never over-reacted.

The prime minister provoked further criticism by demanding an end to the policy of maintaining a "buffer state" along the border - even though such a policy does not officially exist.

Mr Thaksin is officially commander-in-chief of the armed forces, but it will be difficult for him to change official policy towards Burma without the soldiers' sympathy.

Burma's view

Burma's motives for a showdown with Thailand right now are harder to guess.

The regime seems uncertain of how to proceed with the dialogue with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and fearful of allowing democratic reform.

In the long term the generals may try to distance themselves from the Wa drug lords, to clean up their international image, but in the short term they may find it difficult to do without Wa financial and military support.

Rattling the sabre at Thailand may just be a way of intimidating the Thaksin government into being even more accommodating.