As a third attempt to bring reconciliation between North and South Korea gets under way in Geneva what are the prospects for success this time?

The four-nation peace talks attended by the two Koreas, China and the US were first mooted more than two years ago.

But so far, they have taken a long time to get nowhere. And there's little optimism that this round will be any different.

The immediate reason for the deadlock is North Korea's insistence that a peace treaty must be agreed only between Pyongyang and Washington, the signatories to the armistice that ended the Korean War.

North and South Korea remain officially at war

The North also insists on the immediate withdrawal of the 37,000 American troops based in South Korea. There is no indication that Pyongyang has softened its stance on either issue.

China has not so far taken an assertive position in the four-nation talks, preferring to hold bilateral meetings behind closed doors - but it can be expected to exercise quiet pressure on its ally Pyongyang to negotiate.

Washington, too, has failed to stamp its mark on the talks.

Some analysts say the US administration could advance the process by putting forward comprehensive proposals - crucially for arms reduction and control on the Korean peninsula.

Demilitarising Korea

This would ensure that the reduction of American forces became part of a broader process of demilitarisation. Such a plan would force Pyongyang's hand and would probably find favour with Beijing.

The Clinton administration's approach to North Korea has been dubbed by some as "money for meetings" - that is, to offer Pyongyang concessions such as food aid as long as they come to the negotiating table.

However, this approach has become mired in domestic wrangling.

Congress has become impatient with the lack of progress on talks on missiles, and on the landmark agreement to build and supply fuel for safe nuclear reactors in North Korea.

A recent US intelligence report suggesting that North Korea was constructing a vast underground nuclear facility has caused immense disquiet.

Missile technology

North Korea could earn much needed hard currency selling missile technology

Then came the mysterious launch of a projectile over Japan which indicated that Pyongyang's missile technology is even more advanced than Washington had feared.

These developments have hardened the resolve of Congress not to give in to what it sees as North Korean bullying.

All routes are fraught with risk.

If the agreement to supply safe reactors falls apart, Pyongyang could easily carry out its threat to restart its nuclear programme.

North Korea also has every incentive to develop its missile technology, if only to sell it to others.

A modicum of progress in Geneva this week could give the current American strategy of engagement with North Korea one more chance.