Commonwealth credibility at stake

Coolum: Slim chance of unity over Zimbabwe

By Paul Reynolds BBC World Affairs Correspondent

The somewhat reduced Commonwealth conference being held in the well guarded Australian resort of Coolum north of Brisbane is having to face the somewhat growing crisis in Zimbabwe and, true to the Commonwealth way, it is likely to put off a decision about what to do.

The conference had been planned for Brisbane itself last year but was postponed after 11 September and not all its 54 members are fully represented.

The idea is that informality and personal contact should be the style... but informality can lead to an inability to take action

It is ironic that Zimbabwe finds itself at the centre of the argument.

It was in the Zimbabwean capital of Harare on 20 October, 1991, that the Commonwealth heads of government meeting - CHOGM as it is known in the trade - committed the member states, in the grandly named Harare Declaration, to "work with renewed vigour" in support of "democracy, democratic processes and institutions".

The President of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, is not expected to be in Coolum.

He is too busy running for re-election on 9-10 March.

The Commonwealth was born out of the British Empire

Mr Mugabe was also in power in 1991 when he and his colleagues in CHOGM held their meeting at a conference centre in a modern hotel in Harare.

There was a brief demonstration by students protesting about a forgotten issue which was promptly put down by the local police and Mr Mugabe brushed the affair off as very minor.

The heads of government then went off to their traditional "retreat", held that time at the Victoria Falls.

Holding a retreat is very much part of these gatherings, which take place every other year.

The idea is that informality and personal contact should be the style.

Indeed, it is the style of the Commonwealth.

But informality can lead to an inability to take action.

Zimbabwe split

The Commonwealth is a loose grouping of mainly former states in the British Empire.

It acts only by consensus, which means that everybody has to agree and not everybody agrees about what to do with Zimbabwe.

The British and Australians, supported by Canada and New Zealand, have been pressing for suspension, but there is opposition among African and other states.

The foreign minister of neighbouring Namibia, Ben Gurirab, has told the BBC that others had found Mr Mugabe guilty in advance.

Obasanjo: wants proof of Zimbabwean abuses

Nigerian President Olusejun Obasanjo, who knows a thing or two about repression and has been trying to lead Nigeria out of the shadows of years of military misrule, said that he wanted "reasonable proof" of ballot-rigging before he would support suspension.

The UK Prime Minister, Tony Blair, will therefore be calling instead for a strong statement of condemnation and a warning of action if the elections are not declared free and fair by the Commonwealth's own election observers.

That is about the best he can hope for.

Coups

That the Commonwealth is even having such a debate is a big change from the pattern which once prevailed.

For years, military dictatorships were not barred from membership.

Indeed, it became something of a sick joke that coups would often taken place during a CHOGM - the leader was conveniently far away.

There is a legend that one Nigerian president was informed by the BBC correspondent that he had been overthrown

There is a legend that one Nigerian president was informed by the BBC correspondent that he had been overthrown.

BBC Monitoring, the BBC's foreign broadcast monitoring service, had heard the usual martial music and announcement from the new rulers.

Those days are supposed to be gone.

Indeed, Pakistan is currently under suspension because General Pervez Musharraf overthrew the civilian government.

He is now President Musharraf and, if he holds elections and is legitimised, presumably he will be allowed back in.

Benign but limited

Zimbabwe is making it all very difficult again.

The Commonwealth is often criticised for not doing very much.

True, it is not a huge influence in the world.

But what influence it has, is usually applied for good.

It has tried to support democracy.

Mozambique liked it [the Commonwealth] so much that it joined

It was active against apartheid, though Mrs Thatcher's opposition to sanctions on South Africa - which once left the Commonwealth but which is now back - almost tore it apart.

It is busy in lots of lesser known ways - in education, policing, distance learning and in monitoring elections it is something of a specialist.

Mozambique liked it so much that it joined.

And its small states, spread out across the globe from the Caribbean to the Pacific, certainly like to have a forum where their voice can be heard.

Diversity

Tuvalu, the smallest member has 10,000 inhabitants

India, its largest, has a billion

One meeting was startled to learn, for example, that the Maldive Islands in the Indian Ocean would actually disappear if something was not done about global warming.

The Commonwealth's very diversity often makes agreement hard and sometimes only the lowest common denominator gets accepted.

Muslim muscle

This time, there is to be a statement against international terrorism.

The Commonwealth: no longer driven by its white members

In the current atmosphere, that should be no problem and having Muslim nations like Malaysia and Brunei will help in projecting something which is not entirely driven by what is sometimes called the "old Commonwealth", that is, its white members.

But Zimbabwe is in the front line and a real problem will arise if the elections are not given a pass grade by the observers.

Then the Commonwealth might have to act.

And that is something it finds hard to do.