Bush aims to bolster Asian allies

Media reports in China predict another US-Iraqi war

By Nick Bryant BBC Washington correspondent

For an American president at the climax of his power - a proven wartime leader with almost unprecedented personal approval ratings - this three-nation Asian visit provides an ideal opportunity for George W Bush to assert his global leadership.

The trip has been intricately staged by the White House, with a visit to the Imperial Palace in Tokyo, a tour of the Kaesong-Minsan Road - the new link being built between North and South Korea - and a trip to the Great Wall of China.

But it is the rhetorical backdrop to the trip which makes it so interesting. George W Bush's "axis of evil" State of the Union address is still creating waves across the region.

References to an "axis of evil" created waves

North Korea, included along with Iran and Iraq in the now famous three-country "axis", condemned it immediately, accusing Washington of adopting a hostile and aggressive stance.

North Korea's official news service responded by calling America an empire of evil.

At the same time, the president's comments cast a long shadow over South Korea's "sunshine policy", and were personally embarrassing for President Kim Dae Jung, who has long sought much closer ties with Pyongyang.

China, meanwhile, berated President Bush for adopting such belligerent language.

Softer message

The White House promises that President Bush will use the trip to echo the three main themes of his State of the Union speech - winning the war on terrorism, protecting homeland security and fighting the recession at home.

It is unlikely, however, that he will speak with the same sharp-edged tone of his January address.

He will travel instead with a softer message of reassurance, pledging to strengthen ties with Japan and South Korea - America's closest allies in the region - and thanking China for what the White House has called its "vital support" in the global war on terrorism.

JAPAN

The first leg of the trip took the president to Tokyo, where renewed acquaintances with the Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who took his baseball mitt to Camp David last spring so the two could play catch.

The central issue under discussion was Japan's 10-year economic slide, with the Bush administration concerned that, unless Mr Koizumi arrests the decline, it could affect America's recovery.

The Bush administration is particularly worried about a weak yen, echoing the concerns of US manufacturers that this gives Japanese companies an unfair competitive advantage.

There are also concerns that a weaker yen would force devaluations around Asia, making the problem even worse.

In private, Mr Bush was thought likely to tell the Japanese prime minister to accelerate his economic reform programme, and exert pressure on the country's insolvent banks to write off a swathe of loans which have burdened the Japanese economy with a massive $5 trillion of public debt.

The White House believes that, despite his declining popularity ratings, Mr Koizumi is the "man for the moment" - the politician best placed to carry out the urgently-needed reforms.

SOUTH KOREA

The question of North Korea will dominate the President's visit to Seoul - the second stop on his visit.

US Secretary of State Colin Powell has already moved quickly to soothe South Korea's concerns that the "axis of evil" speech could destablise the Korean Peninsula.

South Korean students accuse Bush of raising tensions

Right now, the North has broken off official contact with the south, citing its political tensions with the United States.

But Mr Powell has reassured South Koreans that Washington remains willing to hold unconditional talks with the Stalinist government in Pyongyang.

The White House contends there is no contradiction in portraying North Korea as part of an "axis of evil", while keeping open the possibility of talks.

You can speak the truth, according to White House officials, yet pursue a dialogue.

CHINA

The third leg of the trip is a two-day visit to Beijing, postponed last October because of the attacks on the United States.

Largely to ease the way for the Bush visit, China announced last month a significant softening of its policy towards Taiwan by inviting a members of the Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party to visit the country, and calling for stronger economic ties across the Taiwan Straits.

A chief concern of the United States is missile proliferation, and Chinese sales of sensitive technology

The statement by Qian Quichen, China's top-ranking foreign policy official, represented a significant departure, because Beijing has shunned the party since March 2000, when its leader Chen Shui-bian - an outspoken Taiwanese separatist - became the first opposition leader to be elected president.

Artful ambiguity

Beijing claims that Taiwan is part of China, and has threatened to attack the island of 23 million people if it declares independence.

The policy of the United States towards the island is artfully ambiguous - stating support for the One China policy advocated by Beijing, but continuing to sell military hardware to the Taiwanese to help defend the island.

The US had been pressing the Chinese Government to open contacts with the Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party.

A Chinese fighter collided with the spy plane - its pilot was reported missing

Beijing has taken additional steps to mollify the Americans, releasing another prisoner with ties to the US, and pledging $150m in assistance for Afghanistan.

This trip is President Bush's second visit to China, the first having been to the Apec summit in Shanghai last year, when he met President Jiang Zemin for the first time.

Then, their biggest point of divergence was over last spring's spy plane incident, when a US EP-3 surveillance aircraft was forced to land at a Chinese airbase at Hainan Island after colliding with a jet fighter sent up to intercept it.

Now relations have entered a much smoother phase, especially since 11 September.

Jiang Zemin was one of the first international leaders to phone President Bush to offer condolences, and the two men have had at least four telephone conversations since then.

One call came after Mr Bush announced that America would no longer be bound by the terms of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty - a courtesy that helped moderate China's criticisms.

Beijing has responded in kind, playing down the discovery of 27 listening devices on board Jiang Zemin's presidential plane when it arrived from the United States last year.

Missile proliferation

Beijing and Washington have started to co-operate in the sharing of intelligence to combat terrorism, with the Chinese reportedly relocating two of its listening stations away from the Taiwan Straits to gather more intelligence on al-Qaeda.

But a chief concern of the United States is missile proliferation, and Chinese sales of sensitive technology to countries like Iran and Pakistan.

Ahead of the visit, the White House reported "small but significant" progress on proliferation issues. US National Security adviser Condaleeza Rice says China has made "positive steps towards non-proliferation".

Mr Bush will certainly raise long-held US concerns over religious freedom and human rights, especially the treatment of members of the Falun Gong and "Bible smugglers", and the detention of political prisoners - some with American ties.

The president will also talk trade, hoping to open up Chinese markets to American companies.

Beijing needs US investment, America needs customers. The new rapprochement between the two powers seems based right now on an arrangement of mutual convenience.