Burma slowly comes in from the cold

Burma remains a backward, politically isolated country

By regional analyst Larry Jagan in Bangkok

The international community is seriously considering abandoning its decade-long policy of isolating Burma.

Many western countries have adopted sanctions against Burma because of its poor human rights record and the military's failure to respect the 1990 election results.

Western countries now believe that by engaging Burma they have a better chance of influencing the generals

In those elections the opposition National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, won convincingly, but was never allowed to take power.

But for the past year, the military authorities have been talking to the opposition leader and released nearly 200 political prisoners as a good-will gesture.

Five opposition members were released on Tuesday.

Key change

The European Union now faces the problem many western countries are grappling with at the moment. How can the international community encourage the dialogue process between Burma's military government and the opposition without giving the generals an excuse to drag their feet?

Aung San Suu Kyi remains under virtual house arrest

In a typical EU decision it has decided to relax its policy towards Burma, while maintaining sanctions - at least for the next six months.

The European Council of Ministers meeting in Luxembourg earlier this week, renewed its sanctions against Burma but commended the junta for the progress that was being made towards political reform.

The EU believes that by renewing the strict sanctions against the military regime adopted nearly five years ago, they are keeping up the pressure on Rangoon. They have done this every six months since 1996.

But this time there was a significant difference. In the statement released after the meeting, EU foreign ministers said they were encouraged by the dialogue process and expected further positive developments to emerge.

They hinted they would be prepared to remove the sanctions - or some of them - if there was significant change in Burma, and would do this immediately rather than wait till the current six-month period elapsed.

Thawing

But it was the supplementary measures they adopted which they hoped would send the concrete message to Rangoon.

The EU has increased its contribution to the UN's Joint Plan of Action programme to combat the spread of Aids in Burma by a further $2.2m (five million euros). They have also said that individual European countries would consider adding to this in due course.

The generals know that if the dialogue process is to continue to progress they will have to make concessions

The programme hopes to raise at least $20m from individual European countries, a source in the Commission told the BBC.

The EU also agreed to allow Burma to be included in the International Monetary Fund's programme for heavily indebted countries and to join the international hydrographic organisation.

They are also allowing Burma to participate in future EU-Asean meetings in Europe. For more than three years they have not met because the EU objected to Burma's participation and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations insisted on its attendance.

And finally the EU has suggested to Burma that it would send another EU troika to Burma later this year, to assess the political progress being made in the country and explain the EU's new position on Burma to the generals.

Foreign aid

On the face of it, these new measures seem like a token gesture, but in reality, reflect a major policy shift within the EU. The decision comes just after Australia agreed to resume limited aid programmes for child welfare.

Western countries now believe that by engaging Burma they have a better chance of influencing the generals than by continuing to isolate them.

The EU, in its statement, says it had consulted the NLD before deciding to shift its position on sanctions. In fact the UK sent one of its most senior diplomats to Rangoon several months ago to sound out Aung San Suu Kyi as part of their policy review.

It is quite clear that the NLD is also reviewing its attitude to foreign aid to Burma even while the junta remains in power. The generals know that if the dialogue process is to continue to progress they will have to make concessions.

The NLD spokesman U Lwin told the BBC the NLD leaders were considering allowing the international community to offer the Burmese military government limited humanitarian assistance - for areas like child welfare, combating Aids, and education.

EU officials told the BBC that they wanted to encourage the dialogue process and would do this by not being prescriptive or issuing threats. They said the EU would continue to make concessions in terms of aid and lifting sanctions against Burma, in keeping with changes in Burma.

But they could just easily be re-imposed, they said, if the process falters.