Analysis: South Korea's options

The vote prompted the government's collapse

As the South Korean cabinet tenders its resignation en masse, BBC Seoul correspondent Caroline Gluck analyses the impact of this week's crucial vote of no-confidence in Unification Minister Lim Dong-won.

The political fall-out from Monday's vote of no-confidence in Unification Minister, Lim Dong-won, is expected to resonate for some time to come.

[President Kim] has one and a half years remaining in office but he's a real lame duck

Professor Hahm Sung-deuk

For one thing, it prompted the collapse of the fragile governing coalition - a move that could lead to a major political alignment.

The junior coalition partner broke ranks with President Dae-jung's Millenium Democratic Party to vote with the opposition in calling for the minister's dismissal.

The ULD - a small regionally-based conservative party - was at the opposite end of the political spectrum from President Kim's MDP, which had been elected on a reformist programme.

Options limited

Some analysts believe that the crisis may provide the president with an opportunity to reach across to more reform-minded members of the opposition and pursue more radical reform.

But Hahm Sung-deuk, professor of political economy at Korea University and a specialist on Korea's presidencies, believes Mr Kim's options are limited.

Lim: At the very core of the "sunshine" policy

"In my judgement, it will be very tough for him to implement his reform-oriented political programmes, because at this moment he doesn't have a majority to support his political agendas," he said.

"He has one and a half years remaining in office. But he's a real lame duck, because he doesn't have support in the National Assembly," he added.

With the cabinet, key presidential aides and party leaders all tendering their resignations, the president will have to act quickly to fill a political vacuum.

Reshuffle

Although the parliamentary vote is not legally binding, politically the president will have little option but to replace his unification minister, though many believe Lim Dong-won could still be retained in some official capacity.

President Kim may try to pursue more radical reform

But with looming local and presidential elections next year, the president could use this chance to announce a sweeping shake-up of his cabinet - and his party.

The parliamentary no-confidence vote also casts dark clouds over the president's "sunshine" policy of constructively engaging the Communist North.

Lim Dong-won, a former national intelligence head, was a trusted confidant and had been closely involved in preparations for last year's historic summit.

"Lim has been at the very core of the sunshine policy", said Lee Jung-hoon, Professor of International Relations at Yonsei University.

"But with the National Assembly vote and the split of the coalition, I think the government and the ruling party will face continuing obstacles - and not only with its sunshine policy."

Surprise boost

Ironically, just a day before the assembly vote, the sunshine policy appeared to have received a boost from North Korea. Its surprise offer to resume government-level talks with South Korea was repeated just a few hours before the assembly session.

Pyongyang had suspended dialogue back in March, signalling unhappiness at what it believed was a tougher line coming from the new Bush administration in Washington.

The political drama over the last few days appears to mirror a deepening rift in South Korean society: between those who still support the sunshine policy - and those who feel that the policy has been too one-sided and costly to the south.

But President Kim is unlikely to abandon his trademark policy, which helped him win last year's nobel peace prize.

As his Unification Minister, Lim Dong-won told reporters after tendering his resignation: "There is no alternative to the policy of peace and co-operation. Even opponents of this policy have not been able to suggest another solution."