Analysis: China's next moves

China has seen public protests over the affair

By James Miles, a London-based China analyst

Among older Chinese, the dispute over a US spy plane and its crew must evoke memories of a distant era when the two countries were locked in Cold War confrontation.

This is the first time that this type of plane, a US Navy EP-3E Aries II, has encountered such difficulties while spying on China.

There is probably a strong feeling among most if not all top leaders that a point has to be made to the Americans

But during the 1960s, several American-made U-2 spyplanes flown by Taiwanese pilots were downed over the People's Republic. Some were put on public display in Beijing.

U-2 flights over China - piloted by the Central Intelligence Agency as well as Taiwanese officers - stopped in 1974 as President Nixon sought to improve relations.

Continued flights

But flights by US spy planes along the periphery of Chinese airspace have continued since then, to the growing annoyance of Beijing, which regards them as evidence of continuing US hostility towards China - as well as an unfair intelligence advantage to Washington, given China's inability to conduct similar surveillance of US military assets.

US officials say that Chinese fighter jets deployed to shadow the US spy planes have been more forward in recent months.

This is likely to reflect Chinese annoyance with America's ability to keep close watch over some of Beijing's most sensitive military activities - from the acquisition of two sophisticated Russian built Sovremmeny destroyers to the deployment of additional short-range ballistic missiles on the coast facing Taiwan.

An EP-3 spy plane

China's unwillingness to acquiesce to US demands for the swift return of the EP-3E plane and its crew is designed to make clear to Washington the potential dangers of deploying such spy planes so close to China, even if they are in international airspace.

There has been speculation that hawkish elements of the Chinese Communist Party and military have been blocking efforts by others in the leadership to bring a swift end to the impasse.

But China is often sluggish in its response to sensitive diplomatic incidents involving Americans. In 1996, Beijing waited nearly a day before informing Washington that it had detained a Beijing-based US military attache for alleged spying.

There is probably a strong feeling among most if not all top leaders that a point has to be made to the Americans.

No leader would want to admit that the Chinese fighter jet that crashed after colliding with the EP-3E might have been flying recklessly. Nor, having publicly pinned blame on the Americans for the crash, would any leader want to appear weak in the face of American refusals to accept responsibility.

Belgrade bombing

The 1999 bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade by US planes triggered vehement nationalist protests across the country. The leadership does not want to become the target of public anger in this case for failing to demonstrate the kind of indignation it showed after the embassy bombing incident.

But China is unlikely to push this matter so far that it causes a serious breakdown of the crucial Sino-US relationship.

Bush has seen his demands ignored

Although it is worried about the possibility that the Bush administration will sell sophisticated weaponry to Taiwan and deploy ballistic missile defences, it does not want to risk the economic and political consequences of a prolonged confrontation with Washington.

The Chinese leadership might also calculate that if correctly handled, the spy plane episode could have a beneficial impact on military-to-military contacts with Washington.

In 1994, a three-day encounter in the Yellow Sea - in which Chinese jets were scrambled after US warships deployed underwater sonar detectors near a Chinese submarine - helped to heighten awareness in Washington of the need to develop closer relations with the Chinese military to prevent such incidents from triggering clashes.

Further negotiations

To this end, the two countries signed a Military Maritime Consultative Agreement in 1998 - the first such accord between the two countries.

Close military co-operation will certainly be needed if a solution to this problem is to be found that is satisfactory to Washington.

President Jiang Zemin does not want to ruin Sino-US relations

US technicians would need to spend some time in China fixing the aircraft. Given the sensitivities that this would arouse in China in the current atmosphere, it is more likely that China will first release the crew, hoping thereby to reduce passions on both sides.

Protracted negotiations over the repair and return of the aircraft could then be held. After the embassy bombing in May 1999, Chinese leaders allowed three or four days of public protests but then tried to contain nationalist sentiment and avoid critical damage to the Sino-US relationship.

China's President Jiang Zemin will likely try a similar approach this time. The danger, however, is that this incident will reinforce public perceptions in both countries of each other as enemies, and thus complicate long term efforts to build confidence.