China begins massive census

Millions of rural workers are on the move

China is embarking on the world's biggest census as it attempts to count every man, woman and child in its colossal population.

Urban families are only allowed one child

On Wednesday six million census officials will begin knocking on the doors of an estimated 350 million households.

However, China's strict one-child policy is expected to distort the results of the survey.

The rules restrict urban couples to one child, and most rural families to two if the first is a girl.

Those who have more children face punishments, ranging from stiff fines to forced sterilisation.

During this census, we will guarantee full secrecy

Zhang Weimin

To try to guarantee the accuracy of the census, the government has promised that census takers will guarantee "full secrecy" and couples that own up to having extra children will not be punished.

"After the census forms are inputted, they will be burnt so there will be no question of the police being able to gather and use our information," said Zhang Weimin, deputy director of the State Council's Census Bureau.

But many ordinary Chinese are deeply distrustful of such pledges and those who have violated the rules may try to hide the true size of their family.

Swelling population

China's 1990 census showed a population of 1.13 billion.

Official estimates put today's population at between 1.25 and 1.3 billion, with an average of 3.6 people in each household.

Some people may try to hide their offspring

China has declared its intention to keep its population down below 1.3 billion this year.

But independent studies based on grain consumption patterns say the figure could be as high as 1.5 billion.

Another problem which might affect the accuracy of the census is China's floating migrant population - now estimated to be between 80 million and 120 million people.

World populations

China 1.3bn

India 1bn

United States 275m

Indonesia 210m

Source: UNPD

In the last five years they have increasingly been forced to register as migrants. In China's larger cities police carry out regular campaigns to repatriate those without permits.

Mr Zhang said census officials would not have the power to return unregistered migrant workers to their home towns or collect arbitrary fines.

But it is expected that many may try to hide from census officials.

The survey is expected to end on 15 November, with general results available in February 2001.